§ Mr. Chris SmithTo ask the Secretary of State for Social Security if he will update the estimates given in the Department of Social Security press release of 29 November 1994, on(a) the effect on public revenues of the proposed national insurance contribution holidays for people unemployed for two years or more and (b) the estimated number who will benefit from the scheme, giving the figures for 1996–97, 1997–98 and 1998–99. [13403]
§ Mr. HealdThe information is in the table.
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1996–97 1997–98 1998–99 Estimated cost (£ million)1 303 50 50 Estimated number of new employees benefiting each year2 130,000 130,000 130,000 1. National insurance contribution income forgone.
2. Estimates are based on a forecast of 2.1 million unemployed, but do not include the impact on the level of unemployment, because the response of employers and the size of any behavioural effects cannot be estimated with certainty.
3. The first year cost is lower than a full year's cost because the national insurance holiday lasts for one year and applies to new cases flowing off unemployment. Thus in respect of people leaving unemployment in the latter half of the year, a full year's cost in the first year will not accrue.