§ Mr. Martyn JonesTo ask the Chancellor of the Exchequer what research has been undertaken on the revenue effect of lowering the level of excise duty on beer, on sources of tax revenue other than excise duty and directly associated VAT. [38476]
§ Mr. Heathcoat-AmoryGovernment costings of a cut in beer duty, published in the tax ready reckoner, allow for the direct effects on indirect tax revenues when consumers switch expenditure from other goods to beer. These calculations make use of a model developed by the Institute for Fiscal Studies, based on detailed data on how demand for individual goods and services has responded to price changes in the past.
Following through the impact on other sources of tax revenue would require assumptions about the stance of fiscal and monetary policy. It is that overall policy stance that is the prime determinant of the effect on receipts, which would require simulation on a macro-economic model, such as that of the Treasury.
The Brewers and Licensed Retailers Association has published its own estimates of the effect on government 256W revenues of a reduction in beer duty, most recently in "A New Deal: A Memorandum to HM Treasury", June 1995.
Mr. William O'BrienTo ask the Chancellor of the Exchequer what is the estimate of income from taxes on beers, wines, spirits, tobacco and cigarettes for the current year. [40604]
§ Mr. Heathcoat-AmoryThe summer economic forecast published in June estimated revenues for the current year to be as follows:
£ billion Beers (and ciders) 2.7 Wines 1.2 Spirits 1.9 Tobacco 7.3