§ Mr. HinchliffeTo ask the Minister of Agriculture, Fisheries and Food what was the number of BSE cases in cattle born in each year since 1979. [15907]
§ Mrs. BrowningThe following is a table which gives the contribution of BSE cases by year of birth. The data includes only cases with known dates of birth, cases with estimated dates of birth are therefore excluded.
Year Number of cases 1980 102 1981 256 1982 1,381 1983 4,446 1984 7,994 1985 10,856 1986 19,122 1987 34,640 1988 19,494 1989 6,859 1990 1,070 1991 22
§ Mr. HinchliffeTo ask the Minister of Agriculture, Fisheries and Food how the proportion of cattle and BSE has changed by age, and if this follows his Department's projections. [15908]
§ Mrs. BrowningThe table shows the age specific incidence of confirmed cases of BSE in herds with 493W homebred cases. The figures are in line with the Government's projections, and clearly show the impact of the action taken to prevent recycling of infection through
Age specific incidences of confirmed cases of BSE herds with homebred cases BSE affected herds: cases with a clinical onset in 1990 BSE affected herds: cases with a clinical onset in 1991 Age years Numbers of animals at risk Number of cases of BSE Incidence (per cent.) Numbers of Animals at risk Number of cases of BSE Incidence (per cent.) Range of dates of birth 1 0 0 0.00 0 0 0.00 Born after 18 July 1988 2 35,137 24 0.07 48,575 11 0.02 3 65,317 863 1.32 90,284 1,687 1.87 4 57,444 2,265 3.94 79,769 4,601 5.77 5 48,888 1,696 3.47 67,138 2,641 3.93 22 January 1988–30 December 1989 6 39,497 785 1.99 53,589 1,065 1.99 2 January 1987–30 December 1988 7 29,681 207 0.70 40,406 362 0.90 Born before 18 July 1988 8 21,004 40 0.19 28,565 99 0.35 9 13,516 11 0.08 18,917 27 0.14 11 4,337 2 0.05 6,157 2 0.03 12 3,247 2 0.06 4,602 2 0.04
BSE affected herds: cases with a clinical onset in 1992 BSE affected herds: cases with a clinical onset in 1993 Age years Numbers of animals at risk Number of cases of BSE Incidence (per cent.) Numbers of Animals at risk Number of cases of BSE Incidence (per cent.) Range of dates of birth 1 0 0 0.00 0 0 0.00 Born after 18 July 1988 2 56,705 12 0.02 53,051 8 0.02 3 104,919 686 0.65 97,325 436 0.45 4 92,327 6,178 6.69 84,494 2,781 3.29 5 77,656 5,095 6.56 70,730 5,762 8.15 22 January 1988–30 December 1989 6 61,481 1,719 2.80 55,862 2,806 5.02 2 January 1987-30 December 1988 7 45,971 474 1.03 41,530 694 1.67 Born before 18 July 1988 8 32,340 195 0.60 29,132 211 0.72 9 21,137 60 0.28 18,986 80 0.42 10 12,489 10 0.08 11,212 39 0.35 11 6,733 4 0.06 6,273 10 0.16 12 5,582 5 0.09 4.992 3 0.06
BSE affected herds: cases with a clinical onset in 19941 Age years Number of Animals at risk Number of cases of BSE Incidence per cent. Range of dates of birth 1 0 0 0.00 Born after 18 July 1988 2 36,825 1 0.00 3 68,093 125 0.18 4 58,425 1,271 2.18 5 48,184 1,996 4.14 22 January 1988-30 December 1989 6 37,933 2,177 5.74 2 January 1987-30 December 1988 7 27,646 719 2.60 Born before 18 July 1988 8 19,561 199 1.02 9 13,076 61 0.47 10 7,707 37 0.48 11 4,265 11 0.26 12 3,464 4 0.12 1 Herbs with cases accumulateed by 5 January 1995. 2 Partly influenced by feed ban.
§ Mr. HinchliffeTo ask the Minister of Agriculture, Fisheries and Food what was the peak age of BSE detection in cattle born after the feed ban. [15909]
§ Mrs. BrowningThe peak age of onset of BSE in cattle born after the ban is four years of age.
494Wfeed. The increasing incidence in animals six years of age and older is as expected as these were predominantly born before July 1988.
§ Mr. HinchliffeTo ask the Minister of Agriculture, Fisheries and Food what information he has to show the likelihood of a herd with a BSE case in one year developing another case the year after compared with herds unaffected by BSE. [15910]
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§ Mrs. BrowningIn 1993 17,201 herds had one or more cases of BSE confirmed of which 8,102 of these herds also had one or more cases confirmed in 1994. The likelihood of a herd with a BSE case one year developing another case the year after was therefore less than 50 per cent.
§ Mr. HinchliffeTo ask the Minister of Agriculture, Fisheries and Food what was the number of(a) reported and (b) confirmed BSE cases by age group for 1994. [15911]
§ Mrs. BrowningThe distribution of cases restricted and subsequently confirmed, by age at clinical onset is:
Age Reported Confirmed 0–1 3 0 1–2 43 0 2–3 274 12 3–4 984 429 4–5 4,256 3,502 5–6 7,093 6,150 6–7 9,922 8,418 7–8 3,946 3,030 8–9 1,188 799 9–10 485 274 10–11 238 126 11–12 105 44 12–13 52 11 13–14 27 6 14–15 15 2 15–16 1 0 16–17 3 1 17–18 0 0 18–19 1 0 The data include only cases with known dates of birth, cases with estimated dates are therefore excluded.
§ Mr. HinchliffeTo ask the Minister of Agriculture, Fisheries and Food what proportion of British cattle, by age group, were tested for BSE in 1994; and what proportion of each herd were tested in 1994 for BSE. [15912]
§ Mrs. BrowningNo cattle were tested for BSE in 1994. No test is yet available to identify BSE in the live animal.
§ Mr. HinchliffeTo ask the Minister of Agriculture, Fisheries and Food if he will list the number of reported cases of BSE, the number of reported cases tested and the number of cases confirmed for each month from June 1988. [15913]
§ Mrs. BrowningIt is not possible without incurring disproportionate costs to detail the number of reported cases of BSE and the number of confirmed cases of BSE for each month from June 1988. Information on the number of suspect cases reported and placed under restriction each week since the disease was made notifiable until 28 September 1994 is, however, contained in table 2 of the Government's latest BSE progress report.
No reported cases were tested during this period as no test is yet available to detect BSE in the live animal.
§ Mr. HinchliffeTo ask the Minister of Agriculture, Fisheries and Food what was the level of compensation per bovine reported with BSE for each year since 1988. [15923]
§ Mrs. BrowningBSE compensation is not paid in respect of bovines reported with BSE. Compensation is paid in respect of animals suspected of being infected with496W BSE and which are compulsorily slaughtered under the Animal Health Act 1981 which requires the Government to compensate farmers for animals slaughtered at their behest.
It is not possible, without incurring disproportionate costs, to provide the level of compensation for each BSE suspect compulsorily slaughtered. However, the total amount of compensation paid in respect of BSE suspects slaughtered since 1988 is:
- 1988: £527,142
- 1989: £2,826,788
- 1990: £9,030,752
- 1991: £15,741,463
- 1992: £28,205,613
- 1993: £36,290,273
- 1994: £22,546,902
When a BSE suspect is compulsorily slaughtered the amount payable is an amount equal to the lower of either the market value of the animal or the appropriate monthly indicative market price.
The figures given do not include ex-gratia payments.
§ Mr. HinchliffeTo ask the Minister of Agriculture, Fisheries and Food what percentage of herds, in each year since 1988, had reported cases of BSE in cattle aged(a) one, (b) two, (c) three, (d) four and (e) five years. [15925]
§ Mrs. BrowningIt is not possible without incurring disproportionate costs to detail the percentage of herds in each year since 1988 which had reported cases of BSE in cattle aged one to five.
§ Mr. HinchliffeTo ask the Minister of Agriculture, Fisheries and Food what evaluation he has made of the incidence of BSE in siblings of infected cattle compared with siblings of uninfected cattle. [15915]
§ Mrs. BrowningI refer the hon. Member to the reply given to the hon. Member for Birmingham, Northfield (Mr. Burden) on 19 July 1994,Official Report, column 142.
§ Mr. HinchliffeTo ask the Minister of Agriculture, Fisheries and Food what information he has to identify BSE occurrence in cattle exported from the United Kingdom to Portugal. [15915]
§ Mrs. BrowningPortugal has reported six cases of BSE in cattle imported from the United Kingdom. Most of the Portuguese cases were born in that country.
§ Mr. HinchliffeTo ask the Minister of Agriculture, Fisheries and Food what was the number of BSE cases in(a) 1992, (b) 1993, and (c) 1994; and what were his Department's projections for this period. [15916]
§ Mrs. BrowningOf the cases reported and placed under restriction in the calendar years 1992 and 1993, 36,680 and 34,371 cases respectively were confirmed. So far for 1994, 23,661 cases of BSE have been confirmed; there are, however, still some cases outstanding.
We do not make projections on the likely number of confirmed BSE cases. Projections are, however, made, for financial purposes only, on the number of BSE suspects that are likely to be slaughtered. The projections made for the financial years in question are:
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Financial year Estimated slaughterings Actually placed under restriction Of which slaughtered Of which confirmed 1992–93 37,889 45,569 43,814 37,115 1993–94 40,000 40,501 38,589 32,050 1994–95 33,475 125,119 124,024 117,586 1 As at 23 March 1995. There will be further cases in all categories.
§ Mr. HinchliffeTo ask the Minister of Agriculture, Fisheries and Food what comparisons his Department has made between the tissue distribution of spongiform encephalopathy in cattle and spongiform encephalopathy in sheep. [15922]
§ Mrs. BrowningThe comparative distribution of infectivity in the tissues of cattle with BSE and sheep with scrapie is covered in detail in chapter 5, and specifically in table 5.2, of the spongiform encephalopathy advisory committee's September 1994 report "Transmissible Spongiform Encephalopathies—A Summary of Present Knowledge and Research", HMSO London, ISBN 011 242 9874. A copy of this report has been placed in the Library of the House.
§ Mr. HinchliffeTo ask the Minister of Agriculture, Fisheries and Food what is his projection for the number of cattle detected with BSE at age five years in 1997. [15924]
§ Mrs. BrowningEstimates of the future number of cases are made for submission to the public expenditure survey to secure the necessary budget for compensation payments and the incineration of carcases. It is not possible to predict the occurrence of cases in birth cohorts which have not yet been affected, or to produce precise estimates of the details of future cases born in years such as 1991 for which there have been only a small number of cases. However, because BSE has already been confirmed in some animals born in 1991, it is likely that more 1991 born animals will succumb at five years of age during 1997.
§ Mr. HinchliffeTo ask the Minister of Agriculture, Fisheries and Food what was the in-herd BSE rate and the national rate; and if he will make a statement. [15926]
§ Mrs. BrowningThe national rate of BSE compared with the in-herd rate since 1988 is:
Year National Percentage Within herd Percentage 1988 0.08 1.78 1989 0.18 1.91 1990 0.35 2.16 1991 0.63 2.44 1992 0.92 2.72 1993 0.86 2.43 1994 0.59 2.05 Figures are not available for years prior to 1988.
The decline in incidence since 1993 reflects the effect the ruminant feed ban is having on the BSE epidemic. The absence of a rise in the in-herd incidence is a further indicator that horizontal transmission is not playing a significant role in the epidemic.
§ Mr. HinchliffeTo ask the Minister of Agriculture, Fisheries and Food what comparison he has made of the incidence of(a) scrapie information in sheep and (b) BSE in cattle between 1979 and 1994. [15928]
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§ Mrs. BrowningNone. There is no direct link between scrapie infection in sheep and BSE in cattle.
BSE and scrapie were made notifiable in 1988 and 1993 respectively. Prior to this date, data on the incidences of these diseases were either not available or incomplete and cannot therefore be compared. By the time scrapie was made notifiable in 1993, the incidence of BSE was declining in response to the ruminant food ban which also applies to sheep. Any comparison of the subsequent incidences of the disease is, therefore, meaningless.
Epidemiological investigations into BSE did take into account the presence or absence of sheep on the farm, and indeed whether scrapie was present in any sheep flocks with which cattle came into contact either directly or indirectly. There was no evidence of a direct association between scrapie in sheep and BSE in cattle on the same farm.