§ Mr. HardyTo ask the Secretary of State for Employment what is the estimate of the likely number of deaths due to asbestos which will occur in 10, 20 and 30 years time; and what changes those estimates represent relative to those made 10 years ago. [14367]
§ Mr. Oppenheim[0holding answer 20 March 1995]: The estimated number of males dying from the asbestos-related cancer mesothelioma in 10 years time could range between 1,300 and 2,100; in 20 years time between 1,300 and 3,000 and in 30 years time between 1,000 and 3,200. Projected figures for females are not available.
Currently, there are estimated to be one or two deaths from asbestos-related lung cancer for each death from mesothelioma. The falling prevalence of smoking is likely to reduce this ratio in the future.
No comparative estimates were produced 10 years ago. This is the first time that projections have been estimated using the Health and Safety Executives mesothelioma register.