§ Ms RuddockTo ask the President of the Board of Trade what assumptions he has made in "Energy Paper 65" concerning the amount of coal likely to be burnt in English and Welsh power stations in the year 2000; and what was provided by RJB Mining to prospective investors as likely to be sold to English and Welsh power stations in 2000.
§ Mr. Eggar[holding answer 7 March 1995]: The amount of coal burnt in power stations is not an assumption, but rather a result of the modelling process described in "Energy Paper 65" paragraph 2.26. Estimates of the coal tonnage burnt in 2000 in English and Welsh coal power stations vary between 23 to 38 million tonnes. I understand RJB Mining plc prospectus contains its estimates.
§ Ms RuddockTo ask the President of the Board of Trade what levels of gross domestic product growth are assumed in the central forecasts to 2000 in "Energy Paper 65"; and how this figure compares with current Treasury forecasts.
§ Mr. Eggar[holding answer 7 March 1995]: In the central GDP growth scenarios in "Energy Paper 65", gross domestic product is assumed to grow by an average rate of approximately 3.1 per cent. per annum between 1994 and 2000. This compares with a current Treasury assumption of an average GDP growth rate of about 3.2 per cent. per annum over the same period.
§ Ms RuddockTo ask the President of the Board of Trade what evaluation his Department has made of the discrepancies between the central forecasts for United Kingdom carbon emissions in 2000 made in "Energy Paper 65" and those published by DRI/McGraw Hill on 13 February.
§ Mr. Eggar[holding answer 7 March 1995]: The detailed assumptions which underlie DRI's forecast for the UK have not been made public.
§ Ms RuddockTo ask the President of the Board of Trade what independent peer review process he has undertaken before publishing "Energy Paper 65".
§ Mr. Eggar[holding answer 7 March 1995]: In the course of developing the models used for the projections in "Energy Paper 65", discussions took place with various experts in the energy modelling field. In addition the following two papers have been published which discuss the research then in progress:
Hodgson, Derek and Miller, Keith (1995) "Modelling UK energy demand", in Barker, T., Ekins, P. and Johnstone, N. (eds) "Global Warming and Energy Demand", London: Routledge.Miller, Keith (1993) "The DTI Energy Model", in Hawdon, D. (ed) "Recent Studies of the Demand for Energy in the UK", Guildford: Surrey Energy Economics discussion paper series.
§ Ms RuddockTo ask the President of the Board of Trade what assumptions have been made regarding the contribution of combined cycle gas turbines to the392W generation mix in 2000 in "Energy Paper 65"; and what proportion is assumed to be operating at baseload.
§ Mr. Eggar[holding answer 7 March 1995]: It is estimated that between 16 and 18 GW of CCGT capacity will be in place in 2000. In most of the scenarios all the CCGT capacity runs on baseload. The details of electricity supply industry capacity are given in annexe C.
§ Ms RuddockTo ask the President of the Board of Trade if he has included within "Energy Paper 65" any carbon emissions from energy extraction processes within the North sea.
§ Mr. Eggar[holding answer 7 March 1995]: The treatment of offshore emissions in "Energy Paper 65" is consistent with the national atmospheric emissions inventory and takes into account offshore carbon dioxide emissions from gas flaring and from fuel used for production.
§ Ms RuddockTo ask the President of the Board of Trade what estimate he has made in "Energy Paper 65" of the likely carbon savings which the Energy Saving Trust will achieve in 2000.
§ Mr. Eggar[holding answer 7 March 1995]: In "Energy Paper 65", 1.6 million tonnes of carbon are assumed to be saved by the Energy Saving Trust in 2000.
§ Ms RuddockTo ask the President of the Board of Trade what estimate he has made in "Energy Paper 65" of the likely carbon savings which will occur by 2000 within industry; and if he will provide a breakdown of the contribution that will be made by each relevant Government initiative.
§ Mr. Eggar[holding answer 7 March 1995]: By 2000, it is estimated that savings of between 2 million and 2.5 million tonnes of carbon will be made within the business sector, which comprises industry and commerce. "Energy Paper 65" estimates show that the energy saved is likely to be less carbon-intensive than was assumed in the original climate change programme. The carbon savings comprise emissions saved directly in the business sector through lower consumption of fossil fuels and indirectly in the electricity supply industry through lower electricity demand from businesses.
"Energy Paper 65" does not separately distinguish all the individual Government initiatives in the business sector.
§ Ms RuddockTo ask the President of the Board of Trade what independent research he has commissioned to assist him in the preparation of "Energy Paper 65".
§ Mr. Eggar[holding answer 7 March 1995]: The development by the science policy research unit of a boiler and combined heat and power model was part funded with the private sector. This model has been run by DTI as part of the "Energy Paper 65" exercise. In addition, both DTI and DOE have various on-going research programmes with the Building Research Establishment and energy technology support unit.
§ Ms RuddockTo ask the President of the Board of Trade what assumptions he has made in "Energy Paper 65" concerning the likely output of Magnox power stations in 2000.
§ Mr. Eggar[holding answer 7 March 1995]: The Magnox stations owned by Nuclear Electric and British Nuclear Fuels Ltd. are assumed to be producing around 20 TWh in 2000.
393W
§ Ms RuddockTo ask the President of the Board of Trade what implications for local environment air quality he envisages as a consequence of the increased diesel car usage in 2000 forecast in "Energy Paper 65".
§ Mr. Eggar[holding answer 7 March 1995]: "Energy Paper 65" does not assess local air quality, but a recently published report by the energy technology support unit—"UK Petrol and Diesel Demand: Energy and Emissions Effects of a Switch to Diesel"—commissioned by the Departments of Transport and Trade and Industry, projected significant overall reductions in both national and urban emissions of carbon monoxide, hydrocarbons, oxides of nitrogen and particulates from vehicle exhausts by the year 2000, compared with 1990. These projections took into account the expected improvements from tighter emission standards already agreed, as well as projections of traffic growth and vehicle mix in line with those of "Energy Paper 65".
§ Ms RuddockTo ask the President of the Board of Trade what assumptions are made in "Energy Paper 65" regarding the relationship between the growth in domestic product and the growth in energy demand; and how these differ from the assumptions made in "Energy Paper 58".
§ Mr. Eggar[holding answer 7 March 1995]: The growth in gross domestic product is one of a number of factors influencing energy demand. Paragraphs 3.4 to 3.16 of "Energy Paper 65" provide details of the GDP growth rate assumptions used in both "Energy Paper 65" and "Energy Paper 58". The primary energy ratio gives an indication of the overall relationship between the GDP an energy demand. Paragraphs 6.8 to 6.9 describe the energy ratio in the new projections. This can be compared with "Energy Paper 58", where the primary energy ratio declined by 0.1 to 1 per cent. per annum between 1990 and 2005.
§ Ms RuddockTo ask the President of the Board of Trade if the methodology employed in the collection of carbon emission figures in "Energy Paper 65" is identical to the methodology employed by the intergovernmental panel on climate change.
§ Mr. Eggar[holding answer 7 March 1995]: The emissions projections in "Energy Paper 65" are based on the United Kingdom's national atmospheric emissions inventory and are consistent in almost all respects with the methodology recommended by the intergovernmental panel on climate change. The net effect on the projections of the differences in methodologies is broadly neutral.
§ Ms RuddockTo ask the President of the Board of Trade what estimate he has made in "Energy Paper 65" of the likely carbon savings which the imposition of 8 per cent. value added tax on domestic fuel will achieve in 2000.
§ Mr. Eggar[holding answer 7 March 1995]: The central estimate from the "Energy Paper 65" projections for the likely carbon saving brought about by the imposition of 8 per cent. VAT on domestic fuel is approximately 0.4 MtC in 2000.