§ Mr. FishburnTo ask the Secretary of State for the Environment what are the implications of the Department of Trade and Industry's new energy projections for the United Kingdom climate change programme.
§ Mr. GummerThe new projections, announced today by my right hon. Friend the Minister for Industry and Energy, show that we can be confident of meeting our commitment under the climate change convention and that we now expect to exceed it, with emissions of carbon dioxide by the year 2001 significantly below 1990 levels.
This achievement reflects the impact of the United Kingdom climate change programme which was published in January last year.
In some areas we have exceeded our earlier expectations. In particular there has been a significant reduction in the carbon intensity of fuels used for electricity generation, through increased investment in combined cycle gas turbines and through improved performance of nuclear generation. This reflects the success of our policies of privatisation and continuing deregulation of the electricity and gas industries.
192WSome parts of the programme are not now expected to deliver as much as originally envisaged. In part this reflects the lower carbon intensity of the electricity displaced by some energy saving measures as a result of the success of the supply side changes. On VAT on domestic fuel and power, the 8 per cent. rate is now expected to contribute about 0.4 million tonnes of carbon—MtC—compared with the original estimate of I.5MtC at the full rate of VAT. In addition, the Energy Saving Trust is currently reviewing its plans. It estimates that the programme of activities already established and financed and will save about 0.3MtC. This compares with an assumption in the new projections that the EST would deliver I 6MtC by 2000, based on full delivery of the original target of 2.5MtC, adjusted for changes in carbon intensity of electricity displaced. The trust's further schemes will make additional contributions to the programme but are not yet established.
Overall, it would be reasonable to adjust the projections by about 1 MtC to reflect these changes in the trust's plans, suggesting that carbon dioxide emissions will he 6–13 MtC below 1990 levels by 2000. This represents 193W savings of 16–24 MtC against the projections of which the climate change programme was based.
While there have been some changes in the relative contributions expected from the various elements of the programme, the Government continue to be fully committed to the package of measures set out in the UK climate change programme, and will continue to seek further cost effective ways of reducing carbon emissions. My Department will publish an update to the CO2 chapter of the climate change programme as soon as possible, reporting progress on each of the measures.
§ Mr. FishburnTo ask the Secretary of State for the Environment what new commitments on greenhouse gas emissions for the period beyond 2000 he will be proposing at the first conference of parties to the climate change convention.
§ Mr. GummerIn our national programme under the climate change convention we made clear the need to begin now to look beyond 2000 at further steps which may need to be taken to combat the risk of climate change. We held a national conference last year to discuss the way ahead. This will be an important issue at the first conference of the parties to the convention, which takes place in Berlin at the end of this month.
The countries of the European Union have led the way in calling for a decision at Berlin to begin negotiations on new commitments beyond 2000. We have said that Berlin should set in hand the negotiation of a protocol which should strengthen and extend the existing commitments.
The EU has called on all developed country parties to take measures aimed at stabilising CO2 emissions at 1990 levels by the year 2000 and to work towards further steps to limit and reduce emissions of all greenhouse gases.
At Berlin I shall therefore be calling on all OECD countries to accept this challenge recognising that, in order to encourage others to demonstrate their commitment to the convention, these countries must continue to take the lead. We cannot wait until the end of the century before deciding what to do next. Negotiations must start in Berlin towards agreeing new commitments which, using a comprehensive or "basket" approach, would aim at beginning to reduce total greenhouse gas emissions in developed countries below 1990 levels.
194W
Local Authority Allocation 1995–96(£000s) Related Units (1994–95) Allocation 1995–96(£00s) Related Units(1995–96) Barnsley 1,445 59 875 33 Beverley 812 20 409 11 Boothferry 708 25 295 12 Bradford 8,373 280 5,438 212 Calderdale 3,067 92 1,206 47 Cleethorpes 867 31 367 17 Craven 711 28 187 7 Doncaster 2,878 122 1,585 70 East Yorkshire 1,149 42 425 25 Glanford 609 31 305 16 Great Grimsby 2,047 88 1,108 51 Hambleton 520 27 382 16 Harrogate 1.851 79 815 31 Holderness 368 28 252 15 Kingston upon Hull 3,959 145 1,843 87 Kirklees 6,950 231 3,126 116 Leeds 9,877 461 4,708 231 Richmondshire 530 26 249 11 Rotherham 1,076 45 578 30 Ryedale 821 38 444 22 Scarborough 1,851 86 553 23 Scunthorpe – – 155 10 The Government believe that developed countries should agree a new objective for the year 2010 to guide their commitment to adopt appropriate policies and measures. Agreement on a figure for total greenhouse gas emissions reductions in the range of 5 to 10 per cent. below 1990 levels would seem to be a credible and achievable next step for these countries to take, within the framework of the convention.
This would represent a challenge set against the projections of likely growth in our economies over the next 15 years. But the UK would undertake to set in hand work on implementing policies and measures needed to achieve such an objective, assuming others could agree to do the same. The prompt and successful implementation of our existing commitments, and the continuing effects of the measures we have already taken, will put us in an excellent position to do so.