§ Mr. Keith HillTo ask the Secretary of State for Transport if his Department will estimate the change in(a) road accident fatalities, (b) serious injuries and (c) total casualties that would have occurred in 1994, based on the figures published in "Road Accidents GB", if Great Britain had adopted double summer time. [4509]
§ Mr. NorrisFigures based on 1992 for a change at the end of October were given in a reply on 20 May 1994,Official Report, column 958. The Transport Research Laboratory calculates that updating these figures to take account of changes in casualty numbers since then results in a forecast that approximately 2,080 casualties of all severities would have been saved in 1994, including 110 deaths and 590 serious injuries. These estimates are based on an analysis of accidents in the period 1968 to 1971 when summer time continued throughout the year, compared with years when it did not, and take account of subsequent changes in accident patterns and vehicle usage. Estimates published in "Summertime: A consultation document" in 1989 were obtained using the same method applied to the year 1987. These are GB estimates and cannot be taken to show what might happen in any particular region of the country where special circumstances may exist.