HC Deb 23 May 1994 vol 244 cc53-4W
Ms Walley

To ask the Secretary of State for Transport if he will publish the terms of reference for the review of the methodology of the national road traffic forecasts and of the terms of reference of the advisory panel set up to assist this review, the members of the panel with the organisations that they represent, a list of the research that has been or is to be commissioned to assist the review and the date by which the review is expected to be completed.

Mr. Key

I announced to the House on 25 November 1993,Official Report, column 101 that my Department had made arrangements to receive advice from experts in traffic modelling and related fields. Those experts have been brought together to form an advisory group. The group has no formal terms of reference: their business is to advise the Department on the methods appropriate for the preparation of the national road traffic forecasts. This is a new part of our normal practice of keeping the forecasts constantly under review. The Department remains satisfied with the existing published forecasts (NRTF(GB)1989), but always seeks to assess possible improvements to forecasting methodology.

The membership of the group is:

Mr. H. C. S. Derwent, Grade 3, National Roads Policy Division, Department of Transport (Chairman). Professor Peter Hills, Department of Civil Engineering, University of Newcastle-upon-Tyne.

Mr. Hollingsworth, Chief Economist, Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders.

Mr. D. Humby, Head of Transport Planning, Hertfordshire County Council.

Mr. R. Turner, Executive Director, Transport Planning, Freight Transport Association.

Mr. Peter Mackie, Deputy Director, Institute of Transport Studies, University of Leeds.

Mr. Keith Buchan, Metropolitan Research Unit. Together with representatives of the Department of Trade and Industry, the Department of the Environment, HM Treasury, and those in the Department of Transport responsible for the Forecasts.

The members of the group contribute independent expertise; they are not appointed as representatives of any particular interest or group. The group's purpose is to give the Department advice on such technical forecasting issues as are placed before it.

The Department has an on-going programme of research on traffic, car ownership and use. Research let outside the Department particularly relevant to the forecasts includes: derivation of a database of traffic flows by area, road type, time and purpose; effects of congestion on car and commercial vehicle use; effects of higher fuel prices on vehicle use.

Further research will be let outside the Department as the need is identified.

The members of the group have been told that their work will last about 18 months, though this will depend on the nature of the issues that arise.

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