§ Mr. PrescottTo ask the Secretary of State for Employment what is his Department's estimate of the effects on the monthly claimant count of(a) the switch from sickness and invalidity benefits to an incapacity benefit in April 1995 and (b) the switch from unemployment benefit and income support to a job seeker's allowance in April 1996.
§ Mr. Michael Forsyth[holding answer 14 April 1994]: The introduction of the new incapacity benefit is expected to increase the basic count progressively in 1995–96, 1996–97 and 1997–98. It is too early to quantify this effect reliably but preliminary estimates, based on the Department of Social Security's published assumptions on the numbers of people who will be found capable of work under the new arrangements for incapacity benefit, suggest that it could reach 200,000 by 1997–98.
The introduction of job seekers' allowance in April 1996 is likely to have a small downward effect on the count. Again, it is too early to give a reliable assessment of numbers, but preliminary estimates suggest that the effect could be around 30,000.
Further study is needed to assess the feasibility of maintaining the consistent, seasonally adjusted monthly claimant count series.