§ Mr. Peter BottomleyTo ask the Secretary of State for Scotland, pursuant to his answer of 27 October,Official Report, column 682, in estimated deaths and injuries arising from the use of Greenwich mean time, what is the population (i) in and (ii) not in the northern half of the United Kingdom; if he will estimate the actual number (i) overall and (ii) not in the northern half who may not be killed or injured; and what steps his Department has taken to reconcile their estimates with those of the Policy Studies Institute.
§ Lord James Douglas-HamiltonThe estimated population of Scotland in mid-1991 was 5,107,000 and for the northern half of the country, to which I referred in my answer to the hon. Member on 27 October at column682, the corresponding figure is 1,806,000. That answer also indicated that road accident casualty savings for all Scotland from the adoption of central European time might amount to just over 1 per cent. This represents a possible saving of between 260 and 310 casualties based on 1992 figures. These recent estimates of casualty changes arising from adoption of CET are not sufficiently robust as to permit a separate estimate for the northern half of Scotland but the Transport Research Laboratory Report No. 228 indicated an increase in fatal and serious casualties and a decrease in all casualties in the northern half of Scotland during the winter of 1968–70 when British summer time was retained experimentally. Discussions have already taken place between the Scottish Office, the Transport Research Laboratory and the Policy Studies Institute on 440W possible methods of estimating casualty changes from CET. Further work is being undertaken to provide more comprehensive estimates for Scotland but is not yet complete. The results so far obtained are being provided to the Transport Research Laboratory and the Policy Studies Institute to allow them to comment.