§ Mr. HinchliffeTo ask the Secretary of State for Social Security to what extent forecasts of claimants for top-up claims were inaccurate; and what action he intends to take to ensure that future forecasting for changes in benefit schemes is improved.
§ Mr. ScottForecasts of claims to any new benefit scheme are subject to significant margins of error as they are dependent upon estimates of both the eligible population and their likely claiming behaviour. Estimating eligibility for disability benefits is particularly difficult as the eligible population can only be identified through surveys.
Top-up claims to disability living allowance could be made by all those aged under 65 who were receiving either attendance allowance or mobility allowance. The forecast was that 137,000 of the eligible population would apply, the actual number to do so was 234,000. This underestimate of 97,000 was offset by an over-estimate of 61,000 for new claims so that overall, claims were within 4 per cent. of forecasts.
For the future, the establishment of the family resources survey and the improvement in social security statistical systems should help reduce the margin of error attached to future forecasts.