ECONOMIC FORECASTING AND THE UNEMPLOYMENT VARIABLE

HL Deb 11 March 1993 vol 543 cc64-5WA

Earl Russell

asked Her Majesty's Government:

Whether they have now changed their methods of economic forecasting to allow for projections of future increases or decreases in revenue through the fall or rise of unemployment, and if so, what those projections are.

The Earl of Caithness

The published forecasts of tax revenues have always taken account of all relevant economic variables.

Earl Russell

asked Her Majesty's Government:

In what ways their economic forecast would be changed if it were based on an unemployment rate of 14 per cent. and not of 10.6 per cent.

The Earl of Caithness

Any estimates of the effects of higher unemployment on economic forecasts would not be meaningful without specifying what else had changed to cause unemployment to rise.