§ Mr. Peter BottomleyTo ask the Secretary of State for Health what estimate she has made of the comparative influences of(a) price, (b) parental smoking and (c) tobacco advertising bans on smoking habits.
§ Dr. MawhinneyIt is difficult to estimate the comparative influences of the different factors on smoking habits. The influence of each factor taken alone can be summarised as follows:
- (a) increases in price have been shown to decrease consumption, though by a proportionately smaller amount. For example, a 10 per cent. increase in price will lead to a 3 per cent. to 6 per cent. decrease in consumption;
- (b) children whose parents both smoke are two and a half times more likely to smoke than children whose parents do not smoke;
- (c) the Department of Health discussion document, titled "Effect of tobacco advertising on tobacco consumption",
Per cent. Country Final year of data before ban Smoking level in relevant country in that year Present level in relevant country Consumption reduction associated with ban United Kingdom prevalence in year of ban Norway 1975 43 34 9 45 (1974) Finland 1977 29 (1985) 26 7 42 (1976) Canada 1989 1 32 4 32 (1988) New Zealand 1990 28 26 5.6 30 (1990) 1 Indicates that a prevalence figure is not available. It is unclear whether the effect of a tobacco advertising ban in these countries would be replicated in the United Kingdom, given the fall in smoking in the United Kingdom from 45 per cent. of the population in 1974 to 30 per cent. in 1990 and the existing controls on tobacco advertising through the voluntary agreement on tobacco advertising and promotion.
§ Mr. Peter BottomleyTo ask the Secretary of State for Health if she will estimate the contribution of the major factors in the reduction of smoking in the past 20 years in this country and in other countries since the introduction of a ban on advertising.
§ Dr. MawhinneyIt is difficult to estimate the contribution of the major factors in reducing smoking in this country. Perhaps the most important factor has been the increasing social unacceptability of smoking, with increased awareness of the health risks of smoking and passive smoking. It is also difficult to estimate the contribution of various factors in other countries. The Department of Health report, titled "Effect of tobacco advertising on tobacco consumption", reviews the evidence on the effect of advertising bans in other countries.