§ Mr. Ron DaviesTo ask the Minister of Agriculture, Fisheries and Food what is his latest estimate of the likely future incidence of BSE; when he expects the outbreak to peak and at what level; and when he now expects the disease to disappear in the United Kingdom.
§ Mr. SoamesIt is impossible to predict accurately the future incidence of BSE since it is not known how many cattle received sufficient inefective agent in feed to cause disease. Nevertheless, 1992 is expected to be the peak year in relation to the number of confirmed cases. And all the evidence continues to show that the ruminant feed ban, introduced in July 1988, is the key measure which will ultimately lead to the eradication of BSE. It is not expected that the effect of the ban will be reflected in a decline in the annual total number of cases until next year. Thereafter it is expected that there will be a clear downward trend until the ultimate disappearance of the disease, possibly by the end of the 1990s.