§ Mr. Austin MitchellTo ask the Chancellor of the Exchequer (1) what is his estimate of the elasticity of demand for United Kingdom exports and imports of manufactures in terms of price in 1973, 1979, 1986 and currently; and what is the implied effect in each case, in terms of the subsequent growth in the volume of imports and exports, of the increase in the real exchange rate measured in terms of(a) relative export prices and (b) of the terms of trade which has since taken place;
(2) what is his current estimate of the elasticity of demand for United Kingdom imports and exports of manufacturers; and what is his estimate of the likely effect on the volume of imports and exports in each of the years 1993–95 of an increase in the rate of growth in each of those years (a) 1.5 per cent., (b) 2 per cent. and (c) 2.5 per cent. and of the effect on the balance of payments as a percentage of gross domestic product, and on output and employment.
§ Mr. Mellor[holding answer 13 February 1992]: Precise estimates of the kind requested are not available.
§ Mr. Austin MitchellTo ask the Chancellor of the Exchequer what is his estimate of the effect on the numbers employed in manufacturing of the increase in the trade-weighted relative price of United Kingdom exports to imports of finished manufactures between the second half of 1973 and first quarter of 1991; and if he will give figures for the number and the percentage loss of jobs in manufacturing since 1973 in(a) the United Kingdom, (b) Germany and (c) Japan.
§ Mr. Mellor[holding answer 13 February 1992]: Precise estimates of the effect of such relative price changes on 674W numbers employed in manufacturing are not available. Comparable figures for changes in manufacturing employment in the United Kingdom, Germany and Japan are published in OECD Labour Force Statistics, which is available in the Library of the House.
§ Mr. Austin MitchellTo ask the Chancellor of the Exchequer what is his estimate of the effect on the numbers employed in manufacturing industry of the change in the trade-weighted relative price of United Kingdom exports of manufactures between the second half of 1973 and the first quarter of 1991; and if he will publish a table showing the change over the same period in the sterling price of exports of manufactures with (i) the United Kingdom ex-factory price of manufactured goods other than food, drink, tobacco, printing and publishing and (ii) the weighted average increase in the retail price of such goods compared to that of other components in the retail prices index.
§ Mr. Mellor[holding answer 13 February 1992]: Reliable estimates of the kind requested in the first part of the question are not available. The figures requested in the second part of the question could be supplied only at disproportionate cost.