Mr. Alan W. WilliamsTo ask the Minister of Agriculture, Fisheries and Food how many cases of BSE have been confirmed in each calendar year from 1987 and to date for the current year.
§ Mr. MacleanThe number of confirmed cases in Great Britain, by the date of onset of clinical signs of the disease, is as follows:
644W
Year Number of confirmed cases 1987 460 1988 3,038 1989 7,614
Year Number of confirmed cases 1990 14,332 11991 15,698 1 Up to 15 November.
Mr. Alan W. WilliamsTo ask the Minister of Agriculture, Fisheries and Food how many cases in total of BSE have been confirmed to date in(a) Dyfed, (b) Wales and (c) Great Britain.
§ Mr. MacleanThe information is as follows:
Number of confirmed cases1 Dyfed 1,834 Wales 3,290 Great Britain 41,142 1 To 15 November 1991.
Mr. Alan W. WilliamsTo ask the Minister of Agriculture, Fisheries and Food what is the Government's latest assessment as to when the incidence of BSE will reach its peak and by what date it will fade out.
§ Mr. MacleanBecause of the long incubation period of BSE it is impossible to predict accurately when we will see a decline in cases appearing. Nevertheless it is now over three years since the most likely source of infection was cut off by means of banning, from July 1988, the feeding of ruminant protein to cattle and other ruminants.
The number of cases arising from infection prior to that date will continue to increase for some time. We would expect however to see a decline in the number of confirmed cases some time next year, provided that other routes of transmission do not play a significant part in the epidemiology of the disease.