§ Mr. MarlowTo ask the Chancellor of the Exchequer if he will list for each country making a contribution to the United Kingdom's costs in the Gulf conflict(a) the amount promised, (b) the amount received so far and (c) the dates which he expects payments to be made; and what are the totals of such contributions (i) promised, (ii) received and (iii) expected in each quarter.
§ Mr. Mellor[holding answer 26 February 1991]: In addition to the information given in my right hon. Friend's reply of 26 February, column 443, to my right hon. Friend the Member for Worthing (Mr. Higgins), we have learnt that the Danish payment of DKr90 million, or about £8 million, was made on 26 February. The first of three tranches of $167 million, or about £85 million, was received from the United Arab Emirates on 28 February. As of noon on Friday, 1 March, we had also been promised £15 million by the Belgian Government. At this stage, the timing of future payments is not known.
§ Mr. CorbynTo ask the Chancellor of the Exchequer what is his current estimate of the total cost of Government spending in 1990–91 and 1991–92 of the Gulf war; and what is his estimate of the effects on the British economy.
§ Mr. Mellor[holding answer 26 February 1991]: In 1990–91 provision has been made for additional defence spending as a result of the Gulf crisis of £780 million, of which £40 million was absorbed within the existing defence budget. An extra £9.5 million has been provided for health, additional provision totalling a further £9.5 million made on FCO votes and there are also smaller costs, which have been absorbed, on some other public expenditure programmes. About £160 million worth of claims has been paid by ECGD to exporters against defaults by Iraq.
The effect on Government spending in 1991–92 cannot yet be estimated. The Government are committed to 31W substantial additional costs for defence, but these will be spread over some years and are very uncertain. The indications at this stage are that eventual defence costs may be up to the £3 billion mark. This figure does not take account of contributions pledged by other countries towards the United Kingdom's costs. The balance of claims against ECGD are likely to be paid over the next 5 to 6 years.
The impact of the Gulf war on the United Kingdom and world economies is uncertain and difficult to separate from other factors. A revised economic forecast will be published at Budget time.
§ Mr. AllenTo ask the Chancellor of the Exchequer what is the current total subsidy to mortgage tax relief(a) for higher rate taxpayers, (b) for lower rate taxpayers and (c) for those lower rate taxpayers buying their first home.
§ Mr. Maude[holding answer 28 February 1991]: The estimated cost of mortgage interest relief in 1990–91 can be analysed as follows:
Cost £ billion Higher rate taxpayers 1.1 Basic rate taxpayers 6.3 Non-taxpayers 0.4 Total 7.8 Information on mortgage interest relief for first-time buyers is not separately available.