§ Mr. BlairTo ask the Secretary of State for Employment if he will list the seasonal factors involved in the adjustment of the unemployment and jobcentre vacancy figures for January announced on 14 February, in each case citing the factor concerned and the number of those affected by it so as to account for its part in the difference between the adjusted and unadjusted total.
§ Mr. HowardThe seasonal factors applied to the United Kingdom unemployment and jobcentre vacancy figures for January 1991 are as follows:
Factor Change in factor on previous month Unemployment -68,600 +63,300 Vacancies +28,400 -12,500 Note: These factors are provisional and subject to revision, mainly in the following month.
The seasonal influences on the unemployment and vacancy figures follow a broadly similar pattern year to year, with January having the most unfavourable influences of any month. The precise reasons for this are not known. It is likely that both the unemployment and vacancy figures in January are affected by the fact that (a) many firms close over Christmas and new year and so temporarily cease recruiting; (b) the majority of seasonal employment recruitment for the Christmas and the new year period will have come to an end by January; (c) the weather inhibits employment and recruitment in, for example, the construction and tourism-related industries. For these reasons, unemployment in January is usually well above the average for the year (and therefore has a negative factor applied to the headline total to get the seasonally adjusted figure), just as in June unemployment is usually below average. With vacancies the reverse is the case.
Further details of the process of seasonal adjustment used on the monthly unemployment figures can be found on page 604 of the December 1990 issue of Employment Gazette. A similar process is used for vacancy figures.