§ Mr. WrayTo ask the Secretary of State for Energy what estimate has been made of the effect of the destruction of 75 per cent. of Iraqi oil-refining capacity on normal international supplies after the war.
§ Mr. MoynihanIf losses of this magnitude were to be confirmed, the net impact on world oil markets following the cessation of hostilities would none the less be of marginal significance for the following reasons.
- 1. The embargo has already terminated Iraqi product exports. Amounting only to 150,000 to 200,000 barrels a day of mainly heavy fuel oil, the effect on world product markets is negligible.
207 - 2. More than adequate surplus refining capacity exists worldwide to meet any shortfall in Iraq's domestic supply —estimated before hostilities at 300,000 barrels a day.
- 3. Iraq's generally unsophisticated refineries produce a relatively high proportion of middle/low grade products: by contrast, any tightness which exists in world refining is at the more complex "upgrading" level.