HC Deb 06 December 1991 vol 200 cc258-9W
Mr. Burns

To ask the Secretary of State for Energy what further developments have taken place on future carbon dioxide emission scenarios.

Mr. Wakeham

The Government made a commitment last year to return United Kingdom CO2 emissions to 1990 levels by 2005 if other countries play their part. It also made clear that it would monitor progress towards achieving this challenging target, and if possible improve on it. There have been several significant and helpful developments since projections of CO2 emissions were made available in 1989. These include a number of new proposals for more efficient gas fired electricity generation, following the introduction of competition into the electricity industry, which will reduce CO2 emissions. In the light of these and other changes my Department has prepared some new scenarios for United Kingdom CO2 emissions taking into account recent trends, including improvements in energy efficiency.

The latest scenarios suggest emissions in millions of tonnes of carbon (mtc) could be within the following ranges:

Year
1990 1160
2000 156–178
2005 166–200
2020 188–284
1 Provisional.

These figures are produced on the same basis as those in the Digest of Environmental Protection and Water Statistics.

Previous ranges (in mtc) based on data submitted in 1989 to the IPCC and subsequently published in Energy Paper 58 were:

Year
1985 158
2000 174–206
2005 178–225
2020 188–316

Details of the new scenarios and the assumptions underlying them are being prepared for publication next year.

While it is welcome that these new developments indicate progress towards reducing growth in CO2 emissions there remains substantial uncertainty about the future path of United Kingdom emissions. It remains our view that the Government's target is a demanding but realistic one. There can be no question of making commitments that we cannot be sure of achieving.

Discussions on further measures to limit CO2 emissions at national and Community level will continue at the Joint Energy and Environment Council due to take place in Brussels on 13 December. The Government will play a full and active part in these discussions.