§ Lord Skidelskyasked Her Majesty's Government:
What is their estimate of:
- (a) the United Kingdom share in cash terms of gross consumer gain resulting from full implementation of the MacSharry proposals for the reform of the CAP;
- (b) the gross cost to the United Kingdom of full implementation of the proposals; and
- (c) the total drop in United Kingdom farm incomes resulting from full implementation of the proposals.
§ The Minister of State, Ministry of Agriculture, Fisheries and Food (Baroness Trumpington)The Commission proposals are wide ranging and in some sectors include substantial changes in the method of support. Their impact will depend on many factors and can be estimated only by making a large number of assumptions, many of which must be uncertain, especially given that the proposals would be phased in over several years. The estimates outlined below are, however, generally static ones based on a comparison between the present position and that assumed to obtain if the proposed changes were in place now; a particularly important assumption is that changes in support prices would be broadly reflected in market prices. Within these constraints:
- (a) The cost imposed on consumers in the United Kingdom by the high level of agricultural support under the CAP might be lower by some £1,300 million a year.
- (b) Total United Kingdom public expenditure would be likely to increase by around £350 million a year.
- (c) The initial impact on United Kingdom farm incomes before any adjustment other than to
WA 6 short run variable costs, would be a fall of around £450 million a year. It is likely that the eventual impact could be smaller than the initial effect, though several features of the proposals would limit the scope for farmers to adjust their businesses.