HC Deb 15 April 1991 vol 189 cc24-5W
Mr. Lawson

To ask the Chancellor of the Exchequer if he will publish a table, for each year from 1979 to the present time, showing(a) the official Treasury forecast for economic growth in that year made at the time of the Budget, together with (b) the contemporaneous consensus of outside forecasts and (c) the eventual recorded outcome.

Mr. Norman Lamont

[holding answer 22 March 1991]:

Annual growth in real GDP (per cent.)
Treasury Budget forecasts Consensus of outside forecasts1 Outturn
1979 0.3 n/a 2.8
1980 -2.5 n/a -2.0
1981 -2.0 n/a -1.2
Treasury Budget forecasts Consensus of outside forecasts1 Outturn
1982 1.4 0.4 1.7
1983 2.0 21.7 3.8
1984 3.1 2.5 1.8
1985 3.3 2.9 3.8
1986 3.1 2.4 3.6
1987 3.0 2.8 4.4
1988 3.2 2.7 4.2
1989 2.3 2.8 1.7
1990 1.0 1.4 0.5
1 Average of outside forecasts prior to Budget forecast. Coverage and number of forecasts has changed from year to year.
2 In January 1983.