§ Mr. GalbraithTo ask the Secretary of State for Scotland if he will list for the 16 schemes in Scotland, identified by the National Audit Office as having a negative cost benefit analysis in its report of 27 October 1988 "Department of Transport, Scottish Development Department and Welsh Office: Road Planning"(a) location and name of each individual project, (b) length of road, (c) date of decision to build and date of completion, (d) capital cost, both estimated and outturn, (e) number of vehicles per day estimated, each way, (f) number of vehicles per day from recent census data, (g) the details of the negative economic appraisal or net present value and (h) in respect of the A74 only, estimated capital value cost and NPV for two-lane and three-lane motorway.
§ Lord James Douglas-HamiltonThe information requested is given in the following two tables. Table 1 refers to the 16 schemes identified in the NAO report of 27 October 1988 as having a negative net present value. The originally predicted traffic flows for 1989 were based on the then current national growth projections. Actual traffic growth has generally been higher than predicted at that time.
Table 2 gives the most recent budgetary estimates of costs and net present values for construction of the M 74 between Millbank and Gretna.
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Scheme name Region Length kms Contract let date Completion date Cost £ million1 NPV Originally predicted traffic flows for 1989 (annual average daily traffic) Actual traffic flows for 1989 (annual average daily traffic) Estimated Outturn A94 Scotston-Candy Grampian 8.5 April 1983 July 1985 5.5 7.0 -2.757 27,700 13,100 A94 Laurencekirk Bypass Grampian 7.8 February 1984 May 1985 6.0 7.9 -1,745 27,100 10,400 A92/A94 Stonehaven Bypass Grampian 9.7 December 1982 November 1984 10.1 14.5 -5,362 27,700 13,100 A82 Eos Eonan-Derrydarroch Bridges Central 2.6 April 1981 December 1982 1.5 2.1 -0.813 1,900 2,300 A82 Carnoch-Craigrannoch I Highland 2.9 December 1981 October 1983 1.6 1.7 -0.772 2,500 2,200 A82 Carnoch-Craigrannoch II Highland 1.2 March 1983 October 1984 1.4 1.7 -1.071 2,500 2,200 A835 Silverbridge-Gorstan Highland 3.2 May 1981 December 1982 2.4 2.9 -0.527 800 1,200 A9 Auchterarder/Aberuthven Bypass Tayside 8.2 January 1982 October 1983 5.9 7.5 -1.648 10,000 14,100 A9 Dalreoch-Burnside Tayside 6.3 June 1984 October 1986 8.4 9.4 -0.683 9,700 14,300 A929 Tealing-Tarbrax Tayside 5.6 November 1983 July 1985 6.0 6.4 -0.720 29,800 13,300 A972 Kingsway III Tayside 2.5 August 1984 June 1986 2.6 3.0 -0.203 211,800 18,200 A94 Balnabreich-St. Ann's Tayside 2.8 May 1981 July 1982 1.9 2.1 -0.927 27,400 12,800 1 Tender letting stage estimate of total scheme cost. 2 Includes an estimate for traffic re-routed as the result of the detrunking of the A92 Dundee-Stonehaven (coastal route).
Table 2 Motorway design standard Cost £m (September 1990) NPV (mid-1988 prices) Dual 3 lane 412 127 Dual 2 lane 350 40 Note: All costs exclude VAT