§ Mr. CohenTo ask the Secretary of State for Health what are his latest estimates of(a) HIV and (b) AIDS cases in the United Kingdom currently; and what are the projected figures on current trends by the year 2000.
§ Mrs. Virginia BottomleyAt the end of May 1990, the cumulative United Kingdom total of AIDS cases reported was 3,346 of whom 1,845 are known to have died.
It is not possible to predict how many HIV-infected individuals or cases of AIDS there will be by the year 2000. The Day report, "Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome in England and Wales to end 1993" published by the public health laboratory service in January 1990 as a supplement to the communicable disease report, made it clear that AIDS predictions beyond 1993 are subject to great uncertainty, and made no estimate of the number of HIV-infected persons beyond 1990.
The Day report estimated that there were between 12,250 and 26,400 HIV-infected persons in England and Wales at the end of 1988. On the assumption that the behavioural trends necessary to produce the upper 1988 estimate continued unchanged, the Day report estimated that there could be 46,450 people infected by the end of 1990. From the report, the expected cumulative total of AIDS cases in England and Wales for the period 1979–1993 for planning purposes is 11,360; with a lower band of 8,115 cases and an upper band of 16,390 cases.
A separate group is currently preparing new estimates of short-term predictions of HIV incidence and prevalence estimates of the numbers of AIDS cases in Scotland as a revision of the projections contained in the report of the national working party on health service implications of HIV infection (the Tayler report). Copies of both the Day and Tayler reports are available in the Library.
68WReported incidence in Northern Ireland is too low to make accurate estimates of the likely spread of HIV infection.