§ Mr. Michael MorrisTo ask the Secretary of State for Health, pursuant to his answer to the hon. Member for Northampton, South (Mr. Morris) on 4 April at column 652, if his Department has made any forecast of the likely increase in the cost of drugs in 1990–91; what this increase is likely to be; and if he will make a statement.
§ Mrs. Virginia BottomleyThe Department's forecast of the cost of drugs and appliances prescribed by general practitioners and dispensed by pharmacists, appliance contractors and dispensing doctors in England is published in the supply estimates 1990–91 (242-XIII, HMSO), a copy of which is in the Library.
The forecasts of expenditure are the subject of continual updating as new information becomes available, and the statistical models from which the forecasts are derived are subject to close monitoring and development. The Department has recently commissioned management consultants to review its models and suggest improvements. The Department will shortly be revising its forecast of drugs expenditure in the family practitioner service in the light of both the forthcoming consultants' report and recent outturn information.