§ Mr. McFallTo ask the Secretary of State for Employment how many jobs will be lost in the initial phase of the single European market; and which sectors will be most affected.
§ Mr. EggarNeither the Department of Employment nor the Department of Trade and Industry has produced any forecasts of the employment effects of 1992. However, the Cecchini report, published last year by the European Commission, contains estimates of the Communitywide effects of the completion of the single market. The Cecchini report estimates that 525,000 jobs will be lost over the Community as a whole in the first year after completion. However, in the second year employment is. forecast to grow strongly, reducing the net loss of jobs to only 35,000. In the medium term—about six years—completion of the single market is expected to result in a net gain of about 1.8 million jobs. However, the report does not describe the employment effects of 1992 on individual industries. All these estimates are subject to a large degree of uncertainty. The actual employment effects in the United Kingdom depend crucially on the reactions of British industry to the new opportunities offered by the single market.