§ Mr. SimsTo ask the Secretary of State for Health if he will give an estimate of the number of cigarettes sold illegally to children, and their estimated current value; and if he will make a statement.
§ Mr. FreemanThe best available source of information on illegal sales of cigarettes to children comes from the Office of Population Censuses and Surveys biennial study768W of smoking among secondary school children. From the 1986 study it can be estimated that children aged 11 to 15 in England and Wales smoked some 880 million cigarettes costing £66 million at a retail price of £1.50 per pack of 20. Not all of these cigarettes will have been sold illegally as some will have been obtained from other people aged over 16. However, in addition children who did not smoke also reported buying cigarettes and therefore it seems likely that total illegal sales are in excess of the estimates given above. We regard this failure to comply with the law as a serious matter and we are considering how the law might be better enforced. The Tobacco Advisory Council is currently engaged in a campaign to raise awareness of the law and to encourage its observance.
§ Mr. SimsTo ask the Secretary of State for Health if he will publish any evidence that he has on how consumption of cigarettes, particularly by children, is affected by an increase in price; and if he will make a statement.
§ Mr. FreemanEvidence from many studies over a long period shows that an increase in the price of cigarettes reduces consumption, with a 1 per cent. increase in price leading to a reduction in consumption of rather less than 1 per cent. There is no evidence available on the effect of price increases on children's smoking in this country, but a study undertaken in the United States suggests that teenagers' smoking is more responsive to price, with a 1 per cent. increase in price leading to a reduction of more than 1 per cent. in consumption. A list of studies and their principal results is as follows.
Percentage Reduction in Consumption of Cigarettes following a One per cent. Increase in Price Study Data Change in Consumption Following a 1 per cent. Price Increase Percentage Sumner (1971) 1955–68 (annual and quarterly) -0.8 Russell (1973) 1946–71 (annual) -0.5 to -0.6 Atkinson and Skegg 0.0 (men) (1973) 1951–70 (annual) -0.35 (women) Peto (1974) 1951–70 (annual) -0.37 to -0.64 (men) McGuinness and 1957–68 -0.99 (short run) Cowling (1975) (quarterly) -0.5 (long run) Metra (1979) 1958–78 -0.34 to -0.54 (sr) (quarterly) -0.4 to -0.54 (lr) Witt and Pass (1981) 1955–75 (annual) -0.32 Radfar (1985) 1965–80 -0.23 (sr) (quarterly) -0.39 (lr) Lewitt, Coate and Grossman (1981) Us teenagers -1.4 Sources:
C. Godfrey and A. Maynard, "Price, Consumption of Tobacco and the Economic Effects of a Taxation Policy Designed to Reduce Consumption", ESCRC Addiction Centre, University of York, 1987. J. Townsend, Tobacco Price and the Smoking Epidemic, WHO Regional Office for Europe, 1988.