§ Mr. PawseyTo ask the Secretary of State for Transport (1) what was his Department's forecast rate of road traffic growth and the actual rate for each of the last five years;
(2) what is the Department's current forecast rate of road traffic growth for each of the next three years;
(3) what percentage increase in road traffic is anticipated by the year 1999.
§ Mr. Peter BottomleyThe Department's estimates of traffic growth compared with actual growth are as follows for the years requested:
Growth (per cent.) Year Low High Actual 1984 1.9 3.3 4.5 1985 1.7 3.2 3.1 1986 1.6 3.1 6.1 1987 1.5 3.0 5.6 1988 1.6 2.9 5.2 The forecasts for annual traffic growth for the next three years are as follows:
2W
Annual growth (per cent.) Year Low High 1989 1.16 2.49 1990 1.15 2.50 1991 1.07 2.18 The increase in road traffic from 1988 to 1999 is forecast to be between 10 and 22.5 per cent.
The Department's forecasts are for long-term traffic growth. They are not intended to provide accurate forecasts for individual years or short periods.
The forecasts of growth are presented as a range to reflect uncertainty about growth in factors underlying traffic growth, such as GDP and fuel prices. They are based on the forecasts given in "National Road Traffic Forecasts 1984" issued by the Department in March 1985. The forecasts are for all motor traffic excluding motor cycles.