HC Deb 25 October 1988 vol 139 cc141-2W
Mr. McCrindle

To ask the Minister of Agriculture, Fisheries and Food (1) what contingency plans exist for combating the effects of rising sea levels; and if he will make a statement;

(2) what estimates his Department is using in considering the consequences of rising sea levels in the British Isles over the next 50 years; and if he will make a statement;

(3) if he will estimate the cost of improving existing sea defences and building new defences; and if he will make a statement;

(4) if he will assess the need for new defences inland to combat a rise in sea level and where such defences should be located; and if he will make a statement.

Mr. Donald Thompson

Possible rises in sea level by the middle of the next century are being studied as part of a national research programme, linked with similar programmes throughout the European Community and worldwide; particular attention is being given to monitoring and prediction of sea level change and options for design of flood defences. At present, precise predictions cannot be made due to uncertainty regarding future temperature patterns. Nevertheless, the implications for coastal defences of a broad range of possible changes are being carefully studied.

The present design of defences allows for a rise in sea levels of 0.3 metres per century. This compares with a global increase over the last century of the order of 0.15 metres. An international programme of studies is investigating climate change; meanwhile research is exploring the implications for the United Kingdom in advance of firm predictions. Based on international reports, a range of temperature predictions was selected for these studies; these predictions suggest the possibility of sea level rise in the range 0.2 million to 1.65 million by the middle of the next century. With such an increase, it is estimated that the current annual expenditure of £50 million on coastal defences might need to more than double over this period.

The need for flood defences is kept under continual review by the Department. A team of engineers report regularly on flood defence needs in their area and maintain close contact with the responsible authorities.