HC Deb 03 November 1988 vol 139 cc764-5W
Mr. Holt

To ask the Secretary of State for Transport how many(a) deaths, (b) serious accidents and (c) minor accidents have been registered on the A1 between Doncaster and Durham in each of the past 10 years.

Mr. Peter Bottomley

The table shows accidents by severity on the section of A1 and A1(M) that passes through south Yorkshire, west Yorkshire, north Yorkshire and Durham for the years 1979–1987.

Since 1979, the basis on which the data was held has changed. While it is possible to obtain the information for 1978, it would involve disproportionate cost.

different modes of transport; over what period of years the forecasts are made; what evidence he has to indicate their reliability; and if he will make a statement.

Mr. Peter Bottomley

My right hon. Friend the Secretary of State receives traffic forecasts on road, rail and air transport. Data are collected on shipping. No forecasts are made of future shipping levels.

Long-term forecasts of passengers using United Kingdom airports are produced at about two-yearly intervals, looking some 15 to 20 years into the future. Low and high growth forecasts are produced. Outcomes have generally been within the forecast range. Successive planning inspectors have drawn on these forecasts as important sources on future needs for airport capacity.

British Rail produces various forecasts of traffic as part of their own investment and planning process. Corporate plan forecasts cover a five-year period; forecasts in support of investment cases generally cover the period of the life of the assets concerned. In the 1970s and early 1980s traffic regularly fell short of forecast levels; in recent years traffic has tended to exceed forecasts.

Six national road traffic forecasts have been made since 1968. Some were interim forecasts for use until a firm forecasting basis was established. The forecasts are made for 35 years ahead, to cover the 30 years over which road investment is appraised. The first of these forecasts considerably overestimated traffic. Except for short periods, actual traffic has been between the high and low levels of the remaining forecasts. Traffic growth has exceeded the high rate of the current forecasts for the last three years. This is mostly the result of the level of economic activity considerably exceeding that assumed when these forecasts were made.