§ Sir Anthony MeyerTo ask the Secretary of State for Wales if Professor Hubert Campbell has not completed his investigation of the data relating to the incidence of cancer on the north Wales coast for the period 1974 to 1983; and if he will make a statement.
§ Mr. GristProfessor Campbell has provided an analysis of the results of his investigation. He makes it clear that in his view there is nothing new in the reported incidence of cancers in north Wales; he notes that the high incidence has been known for at least 70 years.
As a result of his examination of the data for all cancer registrations, covering the period 1974–83 Professor
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£ million 1982–83 1983–84 1984–85 1985–86 1986–87 1987–88 1988–89 1989–90 1990–91 Receipts in respect of Departmental Running Costs1 -0.6 -0.7 -1.1 -1.0 -1.2 -0.9 -0.9 -1.0 -1.0 Receipts met from other expenditure programmes2 Campbell finds there was an excess of 5 per cent, in cancer registrations over the whole period on the north Wales coast when compared with the whole of Wales. The greater part of these registrations were in women and the sites involved were the lung, colon, rectum, stomach, breast and uterus. Professor Campbell considers that this pattern is the same as that which was known to affect north Wales many years ago; it is his view that it would be impossible to identify an actiological agent.
Professor Campbell gave special attention to the data relating to thyroid cancers and leukaemias. It appears that there were 28 more cases than would be expected by reference to the whole of Wales of thyroid cancer amongst women of the age of 25 years and over, resident in Clwyd in the five years from 1974–78. Professor Campbell considers that this is something which should be investigated. As far as leukaemias are concerned Professor Campbell identifies 65 more cases than would be expected by reference to the whole of Wales over the period 1974–83 on the north Wales coast. He indicated that these cases were confined to people over the age of 65. He considers a number of hypotheses to explain this. Save in two cases, which might be amenable to long-term research, he identifies no grounds for action. It is however, Professor Campbell's view that the most likely explanation for the raised incidence of leukaemias, might be found in the diagnostic practice amongst clinicians in north Wales. He recommends that this hypothesis be examined. Secondly Professor Campbell considers that a study of genetic factors might also be worthy of further long-term research.
I am very grateful to Professor Campbell for the work he has done and I shall be asking the steering committee for the small areas health statistics unit, under whose auspices Professor Campbell's investigation was undertaken, for its advice on what further work should now be commissioned in the light of Professor Campbell's analysis and recommendations, and specifically in relation to the three studies he suggests.
I shall place a copy of the report of Professor Campbell's work in the Library of the House.