§ Mr. Robin CookTo ask the Secretary of State for Social Services if he will give the most recently available estimates of the percentage changes in demand on the hospital and community health services due to demographic change for each year from 1972–73 to 1995–96; and if he will put in the Library details of the methods used to arrive at the estimates.
§ Mr. Newton[holding answer 18 February 1988]: The estimates of growth in demographic demand on the hospital and community health services for the years 1972–73 to 1995–96 are as follows:
Year Per cent. 1972–73 0.0 1973–74 -0.1 1974–75 0.0 1975–76 0.1 1976–77 0.2 1977–78 0.3 1978–79 1.0 1979–80 1.3 1980–81 1.1 1981–82 0.4 1982–83 0.4 1983–84 0.5 1984–85 0.6 1985–86 1.3 1986–87 1.0 1987–88 1.0 1988–89 1.0 1989–90 1.0 1990–91 0.9 1991–92 0.7 1992–93 0.5 1993–94 0.3 1994–95 0.3 1995–96 0.9 Details of the method used to arrive at the estimates are given in answer to question 2 of the Social Services Select Committee Report, Session 1986–87, "Public expenditure on the social services 1987" (HC413).
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Number of available beds in each London District Health Authority for the years 1979 to 1986. 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 District Health Authority Barnet 2,840.7 2,799.6 2,771.3 2,748.1 2,670.4 2,550.9 2,444.8 2,324.0 Harrow 908 .1 901.6 914.0 938.4 934.8 877.9 904.5 886.3 Hillingdon 1,627.5 1,479.6 1,528.04 1,525.7 1,498.9 1,405.9 1,378.2 1,329.1 Hounslow and Spelthorne1 .. .. .. 1,548.1 1,497.3 1,446.9 1,381.7 1,356.3 Ealing 1,708.9 1,712.9 1,752.6 1,724.9 1,663.4 1,622.3 1,543.4 1,509.2 Brent 2,315.9 2,332.3 2,262.5 2,272.9 2,203.1 2,058.8 1,939.0 1,882.9 Paddington and North Kensington 1,364.7 1,275.8 1,235.7 1,215.7 1,210.9 1,187.0 1,2113 1,208.4 Riverside2 .. .. .. .. .. .. 3,464.6 3,090.6 Estimates of increased demand on services from demographic change are expressed in expenditure terms but this does not imply that increased spending is the only way in which increased demand can be met.