The Earl of Bessboroughasked Her Majesty's Government:
When, following the announccement by the Secretary of State for Defence on 20th October 1987 in another place, they intend to publish the findings of the internal inquiry conducted by the Director General of the Meteorological Office into the weather forecasts that the Meteorological Office made in the period preceding the storms of Thursday 15th/Friday 16th October over Southern England, and when they intend publishing the report prepared by Sir Peter Swinnerton-Dyer, FRS, and Professor Robert Pearce.
§ The Minister of State for Defence Procurement (Lord Trefgarne)Sir Peter Swinnerton-Dyer and Professor Pearce presented their report in January. They considered the findings of the internal inquiry by the director general. Their report found that the lack of adequate public warning occurred because uncertainty about atmospheric conditions in the Biscay area led to a lack of agreement between computer forecasts and, although no individual was seriously to blame for this, because the forecasters did not recognise that the computer forecasts would underestimate the speed of the wind over Britain. Their report recommends changes in training forecasters, the use of more senior staff for forecasting, enhanced computer and associated1284WA facilities, and changes in methods of working (including the way in which weather information is presented by the media).
In saying all this, their report endorses the findings and recommendations of the director general's report which are concerned in particular with the need for more and better observations, for developments in the computer models and for a review of the procedures for handling severe weather warnings to the emergency authorities. We have accepted all the recommendations of both reports, and, where further action is required, it will be taken as soon as possible. Copies of both reports are being published; and copies have been placed in the Library of each House.