HC Deb 09 February 1988 vol 127 cc169-70W
21. Mrs. Virginia Bottomley

To ask the Secretary of State for Social Services if he will make a statement on the causes and incidence over the past 30 years of excess winter mortality.

Mrs. Currie

There is no universally accepted definition of excess winter mortality. However, the table shows the number of deaths registered in the three-monthly periods January to March ("winter") and July to September ("summer"), the difference, and the difference expressed as a percentage of the "summer" figure, for each year from 1958 to 1987, and for five yearly periods 1958–62 to 1983–87, for England and Wales.

The causal relationship between cold weather and excess mortality is not clearly understood, and further research is needed.

'Excess' winter mortality: England and Wales, 1953–87
Year Winter Deaths Summer Deaths Difference Percentage Excess
A B A-B (A-B) × 100/B
1958 163,595 105,629 57,966 54.9
1959 176,880 103,398 73,482 71.1
1960 149,037 112,477 36,560 32.5
1961 177,043 110,747 66,296 59.9
1962 178,210 110,688 67,522 61.0
1963 196,875 113,918 82,957 72.8
1964 156,072 113,551 42,521 37.4
1965 157,184 119,173 38,011 31.9
1966 173,438 118,005 55,433 47.0
1967 145,323 118,552 26,771 22.6
1968 181,136 121,119 60,317 49.8
1969 168,493 120,987 47,506 39.3
1970 172,443 123,750 48,693 39.3
1971 159,347 124,663 34,684 27.8
1972 170,587 128,481 42,106 32.8
1973 169,799 126,645 43,154 34.1
1974 161,028 131,522 29,506 22.4
1975 159,816 128,981 30,835 23.9
1976 184,775 125,861 58,914 46.8
1977 160,233 127,418 32,815 25.8
1978 171,039 128,047 42,992 33.6
1979 175,423 128,112 47,311 36.9
1980 161,577 129,204 32,373 25.1
1981 160,554 128,802 31,752 24.7
1982 166,454 126,944 39,510 31.1
1983 167,638 130,008 37,630 28.9
1984 158,119 123,244 34,875 28.3
1985 173,199 129,569 43,630 33.7
1986 171,106 128,951 42,155 32.7
19871 153,084 127,909 25,175 19.7
1 Provisional.

Five Year Period Percentage Excess Winter Mortality
1958–1962 55.6
1963–1967 42.2
1968–1972 37.7
1973–1977 30.5
1978–1982 30.2
1983–1987 28.6

Notes:

Winter: deaths registered in months January to March inclusive.

Summer: deaths registered in months July to September inclusive.