HC Deb 15 May 1987 vol 116 cc465-6W
Mr. Alan Howarth

asked the Secretary of State for Education and Science (1) if he will state the findings of his Department's statistical analyses of examination attainments at 16-plus and if he will state what differential performance they show as between LEAs with 15 per cent. of pupils in grammar schools and fully comprehensive LEAs, assuming that social class factors are held constant;.

(2) if he will state the main points which were agreed at a meeting between his Department's director of statistics and the authors of the Centre for Policy Studies report "Comprehensives: Counting the Cost" to consider his Department's statistical bulletin 13/84 and its relevance to proposals for the reorganisation of secondary schools.

Mr. Dunn

[pursuant to his reply, 7 May 1987, c.521]: The statistical analyses carried out by the Department and published in statistical bulletin 13/84 demonstrated a strong statistical relationship between examination results achieved by pupils at schools in each local education authority and social background data for each authority. When these factors are taken into account, the analyses showed smaller but still statistically significant associations with some of the broad-based school and resource variables used including a positive correlation between some of the measures of examination results and the proportion of pupils attending grammar schools. The main points agreed at the meeting held in January 1986 were that the statistical analyses carried out by the Department for statistical bulletin 13/84 indicated that for three out of the five categories of examination attainments at 16-plus, covering pupils across the ability range, results were significantly higher in those local authorities that had retained a selective system of schooling. If social class and the other factors considered in the analyses were assumed to be held constant then the statistical expectation would be that a local education authority with 15 per cent. of pupils in grammar schools would have 2 per cent. more of its pupils attaining five or more higher grade O-level/CSE results than a fully comprehensive local education authority, 2.5 per cent. more of its pupils attaining one or more higher grade O-level/CSE results and 1.2 per cent. more of its pupils attaining one or more graded results at O-level/CSE.