§ Mr. Lawrenceasked the Secretary of State for Social Services what is his estimate of the annual growth of expenditure needed by the hospital and community services in each of the next five years in order to keep pace with the increase in the number of the elderly, medical advances and improved services; and what increase in expenditure has been in fact committed to meet the expected growth in the current year.
§ Mr. NewtonExpenditure on the hospital and community health services in 1987–88 will increase in cash terms by 6.0 per cent., which is some 2.2 per cent. above forecast general inflation. In addition authorities are expected to release some £150 million (1½per cent.) cash as a result of planned cost improvements. From within these total additional resources they will be expected to meet all pay and price increases arising in the year and to532W meet the additional costs arising from demographic change and from implementation of specific policy objectives.
The estimated increases in expenditure required to keep pace with demographic change are set out in the table. Increases in activity arising from medical advance are estimated to absorb in the region of half a per cent. of resources annually. The level of spending required to improve services will depend on decisions as to specific policy objectives over the period. In the current year these are estimated at some half of one per cent.
Year Percentage increase over previous year to meet demographic changes 1987–88 1.0 1988–89 1.0 1989–90 1.0 1990–91 0.9 1991–92 0.7