HC Deb 16 February 1987 vol 110 cc505-7W
Mr. Michael McNair-Wilson

asked the Secretary of State for Social Services when the Committee on Medical Aspect of Radiation last met to consider allegations of higher than average leukaemia and lymphatic cancer levels among under 25-year-olds living near the atomic weapons research establishment Aldermaston and royal ordnance factory, Burghfield; when it will next meet and from which sources it is calling for statistical, epidemiological and other expert research; and how much original research it is carrying out.

Mrs. Currie

I shall let my hon. Friend have a reply as soon as possible.

Mr. Meacher

asked the Secretary of State for Social Services following the statistical study on cancer incidence and mortality in the vicinity of nuclear installations in England and Wales 1959–1980 carried out by the Office of Population Censuses and Surveys, if he will publish in the Official Report (a) a list of nuclear installations surveyed indicating the approximate area around each in which cancer incidence and mortality was studied and (b) in each case: (i) the number of cancers and (ii) the number of deaths for each year specifying: (1) the type of cancer, (2) the age of the person who has contracted the cancer or died and (3) the expected cancer/death rate in each category.

Mr. Newton

The purpose of the investigation was to assemble and publish data as a basis for identifying any prima facie excesses of cancer which might merit further investigation; the study does not itself test casual connections.

The study examined cancer registrations and deaths from cancer around 15 nuclear installations at 14 locations (identified in the table). For cancer registrations data were available for each year 1961–80, and for mortality 1959–80. Sixteen sites of malignancy and some broader aggregations (25 groups of malignancy in all) were considered. The pre-1974 local authority districts adjacent to each nuclear installation were grouped into four distance zones. The data were examined for five-year age-bands (18 groups in all), and for both sexes. Comparison statistics were available for control districts, matched on urban/rural location in the region(s) in which the installation was sited. This work produced a vast amount of raw data (over 12 million separate counts of cancer registrations and deaths). All this information will be available in the report or on microfiche.

Work on this material used various aggregations to explore the trends in patterns of cancer over the time period stated, and also over time since start-up of:he installations, and over the distance zones, in comparison with expected values based on standard rates, and in comparison with the control locations. The main thrust of the examination was to seek for patterns of results that distinguished individual chance positives from any set of results indicating possible environmental associations.

To answer the question by presenting data for the 14 locations, for four distance zones, for the 16 main sites of malignancy, for 18 age-groups, for each of the years involved for cancer registrations and cancer deaths, giving observed numbers and expected numbers, would produce a table with over a million numbers in it.

A table has therefore been produced, using myeloid leukaemia as a malignancy of particular interest (as used in the Official Report, I5 April 1986 at column 371–372) to illustrate the type of data available. The data have been set out for the 14 locations around the installations, but pooling the material for all distance zones, the total time-span, both sexes, and in three broad age-groups. The numbers of cancer registrations and deaths are giver, together with a ratio of these observed numbers to the expected figures based on regional rates, excluding the population in conurbations.

Such figures need careful statistical interpretation. There are, moreover, problems, discussed in the report, about the reliability of some of the data. The authors consider that the conclusions should be based not on these or any other particular figures but on the overall results

Number of deaths (1959–1980) from, and newly diagnosed cases (1961–1980) of, myeloid leukaemia by age group (obs), and ratio of observed to expected numbers for specified nuclear installations.
England and Wales
Area Age-group
0–24 25–74 75 and over
Obs Ratio Obs Ratio Obs Ratio
Sellafield I 3 1.057 13 0.677 2 0.355
M 6 1.934 16 0.855 1 0.194
Springfield I 21 1.412 184 1.196 79 1.348
M 11 0.868 183 1.142 85 1.411
Capenhurst I 10 0.634 139 1.242 52 1.475
M 17 0.981 159 1.145 52 1.226
Aldermaston I 8 0.660 74 0.875 36 1.250
M 10 0.814 72 0.815 32 0.978
Amersham I 29 1.336 158 0.938 69 1.297
M 31 1.406 138 0.782 69 1.143
Harwell I 3 0.726 34 1.159 13 1.363
M 4 0.953 25 0.816 11 1.018
Winfrith I 3 0.778 33 0.954 12 0.931
M 2 0.550 40 1.224 14 0.993
Bradwell I 4 1.297 22 0.826 5 0.475
M 5 1.604 31 1.114 15 1.255
Berkeley & Oldbury I 6 1.026 41 0.969 12 0.937
M 8 1.442 44 1.097 11 0.788
Hinkley I 4 1.244 21 0.760 11 1.061
M 4 1.316 20 0.768 12 1.060
Trawsfynydd I 1 1 1
M 0 3 0.597 1 0.521
Dungeness I 0 2 0.409 1 0.587
M 0 4 0.781 1 0.518
Sizewell I 0 13 1.111 4 0.741
M 0 9 0.917 4 0.771
Wylfa I 1 1 1
M 1 0.960 10 1.195 3 1.020
I Registration of cancer.
M Death from cancer.
1 No registrations analysed for Wales.