§ Mr. Meacherasked the Secretary of State for Social Services what was the number of actual deaths in each week from 1 January to 31 March each year since 1979, what was the expected number of deaths for each of those weeks based on historical experience, and what was the percentage difference between the two.
§ Mrs. Currie[pursuant to her replies, 21 January 1987, c. 623 and 25 February 1987, c. 328–30]: The calculations on the expected number of weekly deaths at age one year and over for the years 1979 to 1982 have been completed, and the figures are shown in the tables. Also shown is the information carried forward for the current year.
An explanation of the methods used to calculate the expected number of deaths is given in "Population Trends No. 34", a copy of which is in the Library.
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Numbers of deaths at age 1 year and over registered each week (actual deaths), expected deaths based on experience of previous ten years, and percentage differences: Week 1 to Week 13, 1979–1987 (England and Wales) Week Number/Ending Actual Deaths Expected Deaths Percentage Difference (a) (b) (a-b/bx100) Weekly deaths aged 1 year and over 1979: 11 5 January 12,754 13,929 -8.44 2 12 January 15,089 14,578 3.51 3 19 January 13,558 13,663 -0.77 4 26 January 13,618 12,833 6.12 5 2 February 13,695 12,555 9.08 6 9 February 13,028 12,656 2.94 7 16 February 12,853 12,922 -0.53 8 23 February 14,236 13,012 9.41 9 2 March 13,264 12,914 2.71 10 9 March 13,039 12,892 1.14 11 16 March 12,487 12,724 -1.86 12 23 March 12,767 12,379 3.13 13 30 March 12,503 11,987 4.30 Weekly deaths aged 1 year and over 1980:
Week Number/Ending Actual Deaths Expected Deaths Percentage Difference (a) (b) (a-b/bx100) 11 4 January 11,931 13,583 -12.16 2 11 January 13,314 14,097 -5.55 3 18 January 13,146 13,251 -0.79 4 25 January 13,270 12,744 4.13 5 1 February 12,807 12,622 1.47 6 8 February 12,429 12,769 -2.66 7 15 February 11,780 13,133 -10.30 8 22 February 11,387 13,322 -14.52 9 29 February 11,420 13,164 -13.25 10 7 March 11,322 12,963 -12.66 11 14 March 11,464 12,745 -10.05 12 21 March 11,754 12,387 -5.11 13 28 March 12,594 12,009 4.87 Weekly deaths age 1 year and over 1981: 31 9 January 12,398 13,531 -8.37 2 16 January 12,599 14,195 -11.24 3 23 January 13,267 13,245 0.17 4 30 January 12,534 12,792 -2.02 5 6 February 11,876 12,856 -7.62 6 13 February 11,779 12,914 -8.79 7 20 February 12,159 13,165 -7.64 8 27 February 12,700 13,384 -5.11 9 6 March 13,346 13,052 2.25 10 13 March 12,633 12,897 -2.05 11 20 March 11,785 12,613 -6.56 12 27 March 11,596 12,327 -5.93 13 3 April 10,888 11,981 -9.12 Weekly deaths aged 1 year and over 1982: 1 8 January 11,978 12,785 -6.31 2 15 January 14,461 13,709 5.49 3 22 January 13,820 13,206 4.65 4 29 January 12,517 12,929 -3.19 5 5 February 12,039 12,978 -3.19 6 12 February 11,611 13,000 -10.68 7 19 February 11,555 13,107 -11.84 8 26 February 12,195 13,348 -8.64 9 5 March 12,822 13,067 -1.87 10 12 March 12,302 12,846 -4.23 11 19 March 12,319 12,579 -2.07 12 26 March 11,862 12,386 -2.07 213 2 April 11,888 12,127 -1.97 Weekly deaths aged 1 year and over 1987: 11 9 January 11,658 12,140 -3.79 2 16 January 12,164 13,542 -10.18 3 23 January 14,040 12,978 8.18 4 30 January 12,357 13,023 -5.11 5 6 February 12,083 12,699 -4.85 6 13 February 11,446 12,466 -8.18 7 20 February 11,461 12,728 -9.95 8 27 February 11,449 13,213 -13.35 9 6 March 11,315 13,361 -15.31 10 13 March 11,293 12,988 -13.05 11 20 March 11,512 12,426 -7.36 12 27 March 11,416 12,194 -6.38 13 3 April 10,994 12,152 -9.53 Expected figures calculated using 1981 projected populations based on the mid-1979 total population (estimated from 1971 census data).
1 Actual deaths averaged for the three weeks covering Christmas and new year.
2 Actual deaths in the two weeks containing Easter Friday and Easter Sunday are averaged.
Figures for actual deaths are based on occurrences rather than registrations due to the registrars' dispute.
3 Actual deaths averaged for the four weeks covering Christmas and New Year.