§ The unemployment count is based on administrative records and is inevitably subject to occasional changes in coverage as a result of changes in the way benefits are paid or in "signing on" arrangements. The following five such changes since 1979 have had a discernible effect on the figures for adult unemployment and have been taken into account in a consistent series of seasonally adjusted estimates according to the coverage of the current count of benefit claimants. This series was introduced in the July 1985 Employment Gazette.
- 1. In October 1979, fortnightly attendance at unemployment benefit offices was introduced and the estimated effect was to add about 20,000 both to the unemployment count used at the time, based on registrations at jobcentres, and the claimant figures introduced later (see below).
- 2. In November 1981 the higher long-term rate of supplementary benefit was introduced for men over 60 who had been on supplementary benefit for over one year. Over the following twelve-month period, this removed an estimated 37,000 men, again from both the registrant and the claimant series.
- 3. In October 1982 registration at jobcentres became voluntary, saving administrative costs and eliminating the need for unemployed people to attend both a jobcentre and an unemployment benefit office in order to get their benefits. The previous count of registrants at jobcentres became incomplete and it was necessary to move to counting claimants at unemployment benefit offices. This reduced the count by 190,000 on average, as a result of three factors:
- (i) Computerisation of count and improved accuracy with more up-to-date record keeping of those becoming and ceasing to be unemployed (estimated effect -78,000)
- (ii) exclusion of registrants not claiming benefits (-135,000)
- (iii) inclusion of severely disabled (+23,000).
- 4. The 1983 Budget provisions enabled 162,000 men, mainly aged 60 and over, to receive national insurance credits or the higher long-term rate of supplementary benefit without attending an unemployment benefit office. The effect accumulated between April and August 1983.
- 5. In July 1985, a reconciliation between the Department of Health and Social Security's records and the Department of Economic Development's computer records of claimants showed discrepancies in the figures for Northern Ireland. The corrective action resulted in the unadjusted figures for July and August 1985 being 5,700 and 5,150 lower respectively than would otherwise have been the case.
§ In addition, the change in school leaving regulations in November 1980 affected the total claimant series later introduced and, to a relatively minor extent, the registrant series in use at the time, but not the seasonally adjusted series of adult claimants. Young people leaving school are now assumed to be in full-time education until the beginning of the following school term and not entitled to benefit. From 1982 a separate count of non-claimant school leavers registered at careers offices has been conducted in June, July and August, when the numbers are significant.
§ There have also been a few other minor changes and some temporary distortions—for example, as a result of industrial action in the local offices. It was also thought that the introduction of taxation of unemployment benefits in July 1982 might have had some effect on the unemployment figures, but none was evident. Similarly, the introduction of payment of unemployment benefit wholly in arrears from July 1985 has had no discernible effect.
§ A further change announced on 19th February to be introduced when the March figures are published on 16th April, will provide a more accurate and consistent measure of the numbers claiming benefits. It has been established that the monthly count includes an average 65,000 claimants who are no longer unemployed. The compilation of the figures is being delayed by two weeks, to take place three weeks rather than one week after the specified count date. This will exclude from the count an estimated average of 55,000 records of claimants who cease to be unemployed before that date. Full details of the effects will be published when the change takes place, and a revised seasonally adjusted series will be introduced to provide a consistent assessment of the trend in unemployment according to the new coverage.