§ Mr. Wrigglesworthasked the Paymaster General what is his latest estimate of the reduction in registered unemployment as a consequence of equalising the age of entitlement to state pension at 60 years.
§ Mr. Lang[pursuant to his reply, 7 July 1986, c. 12]: It is not possible to predict with any accuracy the change in registered unemployment which would result from the
UGC Recurrent, Equipment and Capital grants plus home fees Academic Years 1980–81 to 1981–82 1981–82 to 1982–83 1982–83 to 1983–84 1983–84 to 1984–85 1984–85 to 1985–86 1985–86 to 1986–87 Cash +8.5 +2.1 +3.7 +4.4 +4.0 +3.4 Real Terms* -0.1 -4.1 -0.7 -0.1 -1.1 -0.4 * Using the GDP deflator. Previous questions, including the one to which the hon. Member refers, which sought information about funding changes excluding selectively listed funding elements have been answered in terms of funding by the University Grants Committee in its recurrent and equipment grant.
232Wequalisation of the age of entitlement to state pension at 60 years. In part it would depend on the direct effect of men over 60 choosing to retire, thus generating vacancies which may be filled from the unemployment count. Our best estimate of the full direct effect on the unemployment count is a reduction of between 200,000 and 400,000. However, the final effect is likely to be a lesser reduction because of wider labour market effects such as an increase in wage pressure, and the loss of skilled workers, and because the means used to finance the reduction in pension age would also have important effects on the economy as a whole.