§ Mr. Pawseyasked the Secretary of State for Social Services (1) what is the period within which the incidence of acquired immune deficiency syndrome is currently doubling;
(2) what is the projection, on the basis of the current state of medical advice and knowledge, of the likely number of acquired immune deficiency syndrome sufferers in each year up to 1990.
§ Mr. HayhoeThe number of cases of acquired immune deficiency syndrome reported to the communicable disease surveillance centre has doubled in the last 10 months. However, the rate of increase of cases has varied considerably in the short term and should not be used as the sole basis for estimates of future spread.
Recent predictions by the communicable disease surveillance centre of the numbers of new cases of AIDS in the United Kingdom for the years 1986–88, published in the Lancet of 7 September 1985 are as follows:
Number 1986 336 1987 785 1988 1,837 These predictions do not take into account changing epidemiological features and should therefore be interpreted with caution.
It is not possible to predict on any scientific Oasis beyond 1988 because the various factors affecting the incidence of the disease are likely to change. It is also hoped that the planned national public information campaign on AIDS will be starting to have effect on incidence by 1988.