§ Mr. Thurnhamasked the Chancellor of the Exchequer if he will make it his policy to include in the next economic progress report a chart comparing actual unemployment figures with the figures for the relevant period predicted by independent forecasters and the assumptions for the relevant period provided by the Government to the Government Actuary.
§ Mr. Peter Rees[pursuant to his reply, 9 January 1985, c. 486]: A direct comparison between independent forecasts of unemployment and the assumptions provided by the Government to the Government Actuary is not possible. The Government assumptions, used for planning public expenditure, are financial year averages and relate to Great Britain, while most independent forecasters predict United Kingdom unemployment and do not provide sufficient information from which to calculate financial year averages. Comparisons between forecasts or 551W assumptions and actual unemployment figures are affected by changes in the method of counting unemployment, introduced at the end of 1982, and by the provisions, announced in the 1983 Budget, which removed the requirement for some men over 60 to sign at unemployment offices. Therefore, I do not propose to publish the chart requested. However, the following is a table of comparisons.
Independent Forecasts: United Kingdom Adult Unemployment Millions Period to which forecast relates Consensus‡ of independent forecasts made four quarters previously Outturn 1980 Q4 1.6 2.0 Registrants 1981 Q4 2.4 2.8 Basis 1982 Q4* 2.8 2.9 1983 Q4* 3.2 2.9 1984 Q4 3.0 3.1 Claimants Basis
Unemployment assumptions (Great Britain adult) published in Government Actuary's Department Reports Millions Date of publication Year to which assumption relates Assumption Outturn 1979 November 1980–81 1.6 1.8 Registrants 1980 November 1981–82 2.3 2.6 Basis 1981 December* 1982–83 2.9 2.8 1982 November* 1983–84 3.2 2.9
1984 Budget taking into account the 1984 Supplementary Budget No. 1 1984 Budget Supplementary No. 1 Budget Title Non-obligatory Obligatory Non-obligatory Obligatory (C) (P) (C) (P) (C) (P) (C) (P) Commission Section A Commission Administration 797* 6* †8 Commission Section B Agriculture Guarantee — — 16,150* — — 1,833* Agriculture Guidance 195 142 556 514 — +1 — +3 Fisheries 72 25 76 76 — — +11 +11 Regional 2,186 1,455 PM PM No Change No Change Social 2,000 1,369 — — +0.1 +0.1 — — Industry, Energy etc 846 644 PM PM +134 +54 — — Loans and guarantees — — 1,103 1,103 — — +47 +47 Aid 762 635 257 258 No Change No Change Commission Contingency Reserve †1,945 †1,760 — — †-145 †-69 — — Other Institutions European Parliament 239* — — No Change No Change Council 137* — — No Change No Change Economic and Social Committee 25* — — No Change No Change Court of Justice 31* — — No Change No Change Court of Auditors 18* — — No Change No Change Total Other Institutions 450 * Non differentiated appropriations
† A split between obligatory and non-obligatory is not readily available
C = Commitment appropriations. P = Payment appropriations
PM = Token entry (pour memoire)
552W
Date of publication Year to which assumption relates Assumption Outturn 1983 November 1984–85 2.85 ||[3.0] Claimants Basis * Forecast/assumption on registrants basis, outturn on claimants basis.
† Forecast/assumptions do not reflect effect of 1983 Budget provisions.
‡ Consensus defined as average of leading independent forecasts. For 1983 Q4 excludes two forecasting groups which had begun to forecast on claimants basis.
|| Figure published in November 1984 GAD report.