§ 45. Mr. McKelveyasked the Chancellor of the Exchequer if he will revise his forecast of the level of social security expenditure in the light of the current trend in the level of unemployment.
§ Mr. Peter ReesThe assumption used in preparing the projections of social security expenditure in Cmnd. 9428 is that unemployment in Great Britain, excluding school leavers, adult students and those temporarily stopped, averages 3 million in 1984–85 and subsequent years. The assumption for 1984–85 is entirely consistent with recent trends, and I see no reason to change it. The flat path assumed thereafter follows the usual convention and is neither a forecast nor a prediction. Table 3.12.8 in Cmnd. 9428 indicates the effect on social security expenditure of a change in the level of unemployment.
§ Mr. Ralph Howellasked the Chancellor of the Exchequer, pursuant to his reply to the hon. Member for Norfolk, North on 1 February, Official Report, column 335, what proportion of gross domestic product at market prices was allocated to expenditure on social security in 1960, 1970, 1979, 1980, 1981, 1982 and 1983.
§ Mr. Peter ReesExpenditure on social security since 1979–80 was published in table 2.5 of the public expenditure White Paper Cmnd. 9428. Gross domestic product at market prices is published quarterly inEconomic Trends. Social security payments are transfer payments and therefore do not form part of gross domestic product. However, if social security is expressed as a percentage of GDP the following estimates are obtained:
per cent. 1960 5.8 1970 7.6 1979–80 9.7 1980–81 10.2 1981–82 11.3 1982–83 11.8 1983–84 11.9