HOUSEHOLD PROJECTIONS (Hansard, 16 December 1985)

§ The Minister of State, Department of the Environment (Lord Elton)

My right honourable friend the Secretary of State for the Environment has advised caution in the use of the 1981-based household projections and has written to Lord Sandford in the following terms:

2 MARSHAM STREET,

LONDON SW1P 3EB

19 November 1985

"Dear John,

Thank you for your letter dated 25 October.

"As you appreciate, one of our purposes in providing projections of the numbers of households is to help local planning authorities and others to take due account of the evidence available on trends in households numbers when they are considering the provision they are making for housing. Our Circular 15/84 on land for housing refers explicitly in paragraph 7 to the need to take account of demographic trends including household formation and migration in preparing structure and local plans.

"I cannot stress too strongly, however, that while we can project these trends into the future, as we do in the population and household projections, there can be no certainty that the trends will continue. The projections are heavily dependent on the assumptions which are made both about migration and about the rates at which people will form separate households. In some areas there may be strong reasons why we might expect the number of households to diverge from the levels projected from past trends. One would want to look for example at how the number of households which was projected was going to be translated into demand in the market place. We produce the best projections we can and we want them to be taken into account, but at the end of the day they can be nothing better than partial guides.

647WA

"The 1983—based projections are likely to be available early next year. It is too early to say how these will differ from the 1981-based figures published early this year, but there will inevitably be some differences as a result of the extra information now available. My officials are looking especially carefully at the procedure used to reconcile the regional and national figures. I think it is clear now that the procedure used in the last round led to projections for Greater London which were on the high side. We hope to be able to make use of a revised procedure in the next round which will elimate this effect.

"I am most grateful to your officials for the care they have taken in examining the 1981—based results and for the helpful points that they have made to my officials. These contributions will all be useful in our efforts to improve the projections in future rounds.

Yours ever,

(Signed: Kenneth Baker)"