§ Mr. Maloneasked the Secretary of State for Scotland if he will publish in the Official Report details of his spending plans for 1986–87, 1987–88 and 1988–89.
§ Mr. YoungerTotal expenditure on the programmes within my responsiblity will by £7,565 million in 1986–87, £7,410 million in 1987–88 and £7,430 million in 1988–89. The figure of £7,565 million which I have now provided for 1986–87 is £225 million higher than the figure for that year published in the 1985 public expenditure White Paper (Cmnd. 9428) and £407 million—5.7 per cent.—higher than the planned figure for the current year. Outturn for 1985–86 is currently expected to be about £7,356 million. That excess over provision largely reflects continued revenue spending by local authorities above the levels provided for. The outturn figure is likely to change as firmer information becomes available.
The lower totals in 1987–88 and 1988–89 are largely due to the completion of the Torness nuclear power station which allows the South of Scotland Electricity Board's external financing limit to be substantially reduced in each year. In addition, as in England and Wales, no decision has been taken on provision for local authority current expenditure for 1987–88 and 1988–89. The figures for those years included in the programme totals therefore simply repeat those for 1986–87. They will be reconsidered during next year's public expenditure survey.
As I announced on 3 December, I will shortly be completing my consultations with the Convention of Scottish Local Authorities about the rate support grant settlement for 1986–87 and will then lay before the House the relevant rate support grant order. Subject to those consultations, the order will provide for a total relevant expenditure of £3,574.6 million and aggregate Exchequer grant of £2,005 million. A further addition will be made to both of these figures to take into account the transfer of financial responsibility for list D schools to local authorities as from 1 April 1986.
The proposed provision for relevant expenditure is, excluding loans charges, interest receipts and the list D schools transfer, 3.9 per cent. above the figure for 1985–86 and £59 million above the provision in the White Paper (Cmnd. 9428).
I thought it right to continue the revaluation rebates scheme for domestic and commercial ratepayers although relief next year will be 75 per cent. of the amounts presently available. The cost of the relief in 1986–87 will be about £20 million part of which will be provided by a transfer of resources from my block.
561WThe figures for each of the services within my responsibility are given in the table; the following particular points should be noted:
Agriculture and Fisheries
The totals reflect the higher rates of hill livestock compensatory allowances announced on 28 November which raise the total paid through these allowances from £38 million to £43 million in a full year. The 1985–86 outturn includes £7.7 million for the emergency weather aid announced at the same time. Provision is also made for the purchase of an offshore aerial surveillance aircraft by DAFS in 1986–87.
Industry
Provision for 1986–87 will be about 8 per cent. more than provision for the current years in Cmnd. 9428. As anticipated in that White Paper, provision will decline in 1987–88 to reflect the end of the period in which payments under the former regional development grant (RDG) arrangements are being made alongside payments under the revised RDG arrangements introduced in November 1984. After this transitional adjustment, provision is planned to increase again in 1988–89. Provision for grant-in-aid in respect of net expenditure by the SDA and HIDB will continue at broadly the same level as in the current year to maintain the important work of these bodies.
Transport
The provision for transport in 1986–87 will be about £14 million more than was planned for the current year after taking account of technical adjustments. Further progress will be made on important trunk road bypasses, dual carriageways and other improvements. Strategic routes covered will include the A75 to Stranraer and main roads linking Aberdeen to Dundee and Inverness. The Government will also continue to honour their commitment to subsidise certain shipping and civil aviation services.
Housing
In 1986–87 total net provision for housing will be £645 million, an increase of £47 million over Cmnd. 9428 provision for the current year. Further growth in the net housing baseline is planned for future years with total net provision being set at £670 million for 1987–88 rising to £700 million in 1988–89. It remains my aim to concentrate resources on capital investment. Net capital expenditure will be about 64.4 per cent. of the total planned provision for the current year. I intend that this proportion should rise still further in later years. Once investment financed by net capital receipts is taken into account the programme will allow for gross capital investment next year of £636 million, an increase of about £55 million over the current year. This additional provision will enable local authorities to meet more of the needs for renovation and repair of their own stock. It will also allow some increase in the local authority non-HRA allocations for improvement grants to the private sector. As a consequence of concentrating the increased resources in the local authority sector, the gross capital expenditure provision for the other housing agencies next year will be broadly the same in cash terms as that allowed for this year.
Other Environmental Services
Provision for 1986–87 will be about £32 million higher than provision for the current year. Much of the increase relates to local authority expenditure but increased priority is also being given to capital expenditure on water and sewerage services, which is planned to increase by almost 20 per cent. over the current level during the survey 562W period. This underlines the Government's commitment to the improvement, maintenance and renewal of the fabric of important infrastructure services.
Law, Order and Protective Services
The Government remain firmly committed to making adequate provision for the maintenance of law and order. My expenditure plans will meet the cost of the police service and permit a modest increase in police manpower to meet priority requirements. They allow also for the number of prison service officers to be increased by a further 125 over the next three years mainly to accommodate the opening of a new prison at Shotts.
Education
The bulk of this programme consists of local authority current expenditure. For the remaining elements which are within my direct control my highest priority remains the commitment I announced last year to increase the availability of engineering and IT courses within higher education. I have also been able to increase provision for higher education by some £10 million in 1986–87. This will help to meet costs associated with the transfer of Napier college and Glasgow college of technology to central institution status, including the acquisition of Craiglockhart for Napier college and to maintain access to higher education through students awards.
Arts and Libraries
In order to enable the trustees to develop the Royal Museum of Scotland I have made additional funds available to them for new posts and other improvements. In addition to the provision for this programme within my block I have made £600,000 available in each year to my hon. Friend the Minister for the Arts to enable the Scottish Arts Council to maintain its partnership with the Convention of Scottish Local Authorities over the funding of the Scottish national companies following changes in local government organisations.
Health
The Health Service in Scotland remains a high priority. I plan to increase cash provision for 1986–87 to £2,080 million, over £120 million more than this year's expected level of spending. Over the forthcoming three years to 1988–89 my plans are to increase spending on the NHS by over £300 million, or 15 per cent.
From the extra cash for 1986–87, I am setting aside £93 million for hospitals and community health services, to increase cash provision for this main programme by 6.8 per cent. For the following two years allocations to this programme are to increase by 1 per cent. more than the level of forecast inflation for each year. Over the three years to 1988–89 planned expenditure on hospital services and community health is therefore set to increase by £220 million or 16 per cent. Health boards will also be able to retain resources released within their own budgets by cost improvements and efficiency measures.
The resources set aside for the family practitioner services provide for the expected rise in public demand for these services.
The decisions I have taken reflect the Government's determination to keep public expenditure under firm control while ensuring that adequate resources are available for worthwhile expenditure. The Scottish block arrangements have again ensured that my programme receives its fair share of resources and have provided me with the flexibility to take Scotland's needs and circumstances properly into account.
563W
£ million 1985–86 1986–87 1987–88 1988–89 *Cmnd. 9428 Provision Est. outturn *Cmnd. 9428 Provision †Revised Provision *Cmnd. 9428 Provision †Revised Provision 1988–89 †Provision Agriculture 176 209 172 190 170 190 190 Industry 275 296 309 302 240 230 240 Tourism 12 12 13 13 10 10 10 Transport 529 555 564 587 570 600 600 Housing 598 618 619 645 640 670 700 Other Environmental Services 556 587 595 588 600 600 600 Law, Order and Protective Services 511 516 536 563 560 570 580 Education 1,696 1,821 1,754 1,793 1,770 1,800 1,800 Arts and Libraries 68 76 71 75 70 70 70 Health and Social Work 2,308 2,311 2,424 2,443 2,520 2,530 2,620 Other public services 104 104 108 110 110 110 110 LA current expenditure not allocated to Services 81 — — 19 — 20 20 Nationalised industries' external financing 245 251 167 239 40 0 –120 7,158 7,356 7,332 7,565 7,310 7,410 7,430 Note: Figures for 1987–88 and 1988–89 are rounded to the nearest £10 million. * White Paper (Cmnd. 9428) figures adjusted for reallocation of local authority current provision. † Figures take account of pre-survey and survey changes. Some figures may be subject to detailed technical amendment.