§ Mr. Canavanasked the Secretary of State for Scotland (1) whether he will list, for each of the past 10 years, the number of cases of cancerous diseases and the corresponding rates per 100,000 population for (a) Scotland, (b) the Forth Valley health board area, (c) the Falkirk local government district and (d) the postal districts FK4, FK5 and FK6; and what significances he attaches to these statistics;
(2) whether he will list, for each of the past 15 years, the number of cases of Hodgkins disease and the corresponding rates per 100,000 population for (a) Scotland, (b) the Forth Valley health board area, (c) the Falkirk local government district, (d) the postal districts FK4, FK5 and FK6 and (e) the corresponding figures for comparable control areas;
(3) whether he will list, for each of the past 15 years, the number of cases of myloid leukaemia and the 402W corresponding rates per 100,000 population for (a) Scotland, (b) the Forth Valley health board area, (c) the Falkirk local government district, (d) the postal districts FK4, FK5 and FK6 and (e) the corresponding figures for comparable control areas;
(4) whether he will list, for each of the past 15 years, the number of cases of all forms of leukaemia and the corresponding rates per 100,000 population for (a) Scotland, (b) the Forth Valley health board area, (c) the Falkirk local government district, (d) the postal districts FK4, FK5 and FK6 and (e) the corresponding figures for comparable control areas;
(5) whether he will list, for each of the past 15 years, the number of cases of abnormalities at birth and the corresponding rates per 100,000 population for (a) Scotland, (b) the Forth Valley health board area, (c) the Falkirk local government district, (d) the postal districts FK4, FK5 and FK6 and (e) the corresponding figures for comparable control areas;
(6) pursuant to the reply to the hon. Member for Falkirk, West on 6 June, Official Report, column 193, when he expects to write to the hon. Member; if he will include figures for the past 15 years; if he will give corresponding figures for comparable control areas in his letter; and if he will publish his letter in the Official Report.
§ Mr. John MacKay[pursuant to his replies, 6 June 1984, c. 193, 12 June 1984, c. 367, and 13 June 1984, c. 504]: There follows the text of a letter which I have sent today to the hon. Member:
Dennis Canavan Esq MP
House of Commons
London
SW1A OAA
26 June 1984
I am sorry that it was not possible in the time available to give you replies to the 4 Parliamentary Questions you put down for written priority answer on 11 June on the number of cases of leukaemia and other disorders in Bonnybridge/Denny and the surrounding areas, and to the Question you put down for answer on 6 June about the number of cases of cancer in the same areas. These figures have now been abstracted and I attach tables showing the numbers of registered cases of:
- a. Leukaemias (ICD 204–208)
- b. Myeloid Leukaemia (ICD 205)
- c. Hodgkins disease (ICD 201)
- d. Lymphosarcoma etc. (ICD 200 and 202)
- e. All diagnoses of cancer
- f. Abnormalities at birth
It must be stressed that the populations concerned are relatively small—for example, the total population in the postal districts FK4, FK5 and FK6 is only just over 40,000. The numbers of blood-related cancers are consequently also very small. It will be seen that there were no registered cases of myeloid leukaemia in these postal districts from 1975 to 1980, although about 8 cases might have been expected if the incidence of this disorder had been the same there as in the rest of Scotland. For all leukaemia cases the actual number of cases registered during the period 1975–81 was 14, though 20 cases might have been expected had national rates applied in this area.
I understand however that the registration of cancer cases in this area was tightened up in 1978 so it is possible that some cases may not have been recorded prior to that date. If we accept that registration was incomplete before 1978, and thus disregard the earlier years, the actual number of cases of leukaemia in districts FK4, FK5 and FK6 for the period 1979–81 was 10, against an expected number of 8.5 had national rates applied. This is not a statistically significant excess.
The picture is much the same with Hodgkins disease. During the period 1975–81 9 cases were recorded in postal districts FK4, 403W FK5 and FK6 against an expected number of 8 had national rates applied. The other forms of blood-related cancers (ICD 200 and 202) show the same minor fluctuations.
The figures in Table (e) (all diagnoses of cancer) differ slightly from those given to the "Falkirk Herald" on 22 May by Dr. M. A. Heasman, Director of the Information Services Division of the Common Services Agency. The earlier tables were compiled using 1981 Census population figures to provide rates per 100,000 of the population. Table (e) was compiled using the Registrar General's current mid year population estimates which give more up-to-date results.
The figures for the later years may give rise to some public concern and the Secretary of State has decided that the matter requires to be investigated by an independent body. He has therefore asked Professor John Lenihan, who was until recently
(a) ICD 204–208 Leukaemias Cases registered and rates per 100,000 of population 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 FK4, FK5, FK6 Number 2 1 1 — 1 5 4 Rate 5.2 2.6 2.6 — 2.5 12.5 9.9 Falkirk local government district Number 9 8 6 7 6 13 9 Rate 6.3 5.6 4.2 4.9 4.2 9.0 6.2 Forth Valley health board Number 13 13 20 18 13 27 16 Rate 4.8 4.8 7.4 6.6 4.8 10.0 5.8 Scotland Number 415 412 423 451 398 396 379 Rate 8.0 7.9 8.1 8.7 7.7 7.7 7.4
(b) ICD 205 Myeloid Leukaemia Cases registered and rates per 100,000 of population 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 FK4, FK5, FK6 Number — — — — — — 3 Rate — — — — — — 7.4 Falkirk local government district Number 4 1 1 3 — 4 4 Rate 2.8 0.7 0.7 2.1 — 2.8 2.8 Forth Valley health board Number 5 3 5 7 2 8 7 Rate 1.9 1.1 1.8 2.6 0.7 2.9 2.6 Scotland Number 173 175 177 201 182 170 179 Rate 3.3 3.4 3.4 3.9 3.5 3.3 3.5 404W
(c) ICD 201 Hodgkins Disease Cases registered and rates per 100,000 of population 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 FK4, FK5, FK6 Number 2 — 1 1 1 1 3 Rate 5.2 — 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.5 7.4 Falkirk local government district Number 5 2 6 4 6 4 6 Rate 3.5 1.4 4.2 2.8 4.2 2.8 4.1 Forth Valley health board Number 6 6 12 11 11 8 11 Rate 2.2 2.2 4.4 4.0 4.1 2.9 4.0 Scotland Number 146 135 147 142 155 153 149 Rate 2.8 2.6 2.8 2.7 3.0 3.0 2.9 Professor of Clinical Physics at Glasgow University, to chair a review by a multi-disciplinary working group with the following terms of reference:
"To review any unusual features of morbidity recorded in the Bonnybridge/Denny area and in the surrounding district; to take full account of other available studies of statistical variations in morbidity in areas of comparable size; to report on the significance of any abnormal findings and on any other relevant information that is available; and to advise whether further studies are required."
He has asked Professor Lenihan to report on this as soon as practicable and we hope to have his preliminary findings before the end of this year.
The names of the other members of the review will be announced shortly.
JOHN J. MacKAY
The information is as follows: 405W
(d)ICO 200 & 202 lymphosarcoma, reticulosarcoma and other neoplasms or lymphoid tissue—cases registered and rates per 100,000 of population 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 FK4, FK5, FK6 Number 1 1 2 1 4 3 3 Rate 2.6 2.6 5.1 2.5 10.1 7.5 7.4 Falkirk LG District Number 8 5 8 6 13 11 17 Rate 5.6 3.5 5.6 4.2 9.0 7.6 11.7 Forth Valley HB Number 19 13 18 12 18 18 26 Rate 7.1 4.8 6.6 4.4 6.6 6.6 9.5 Scotland Number 359 411 401 398 411 472 455 Rate 6.9 7.9 7.7 7.7 8.0 9.2 8.8
(e) Cancer registrations—all diagnoses Numbers/rates per 100,000 population 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 FK4;FK5;FK6 Number 105 135 138 173 152 161 188 Rate 273.7 348.6 353.1 438.7 381.9 400.9 464.0 Falkirk LG District Number 472 493 527 562 528 581 627 Rate 330.6 344.4 366.0 389.9 367.3 403.9 432.3 Forth Valley HB Number 885 985 1,054 1,068 1,037 1,141 1,138 Rate 328.7 364.7 388.2 392.9 382.4 420.7 416.1 Scotland Number 20,812 21,199 21,464 22,236 22,358 23,613 23,841 Rate 399.8 407.3 413.1 429.3 432.7 458.2 460.2
(f) Abnormalities at Birth (i) The number and percentage of live births in FK4, FK5 and FK6 with diagnostic codes indicating a congenital anomaly in 1976–81 was as follows: 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 Total number of live births 465 459 447 519 560 500 Number of live births with anomaly 34 43 39 25 41 47 Percentage of live births with anomaly 7.3 9.4 8.7 4.8 7.3 9.4 Only 23 of the 229 anomalies could be considered major.
(ii) The incidence of anomalies reported annually in neonatal records in FK4, FK5 and FK6; in Falkirk; in the whole of Forth Valley Health Board; in Fife Health Board; and in comparable Health Board areas in 1976–81 was as follows: percentage 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 FK4, FK5 and FK6 7.3 9.4 8.7 4.8 7.3 9.4 Falkirk 10.4 10.0 8.3 6.1 6.5 8.0 Forth Valley HB 10.9 9.7 8.7 8.5 9.0 8.8 FifeHB 9.7 5.8 6.0 6.0 9.6 8.1 Dumfries and Galloway HB 5.5 4.8 8.6 10.3 10.1 7.7 * 8 Health Boards 11.6 11.1 12.5 10.4 13.6 14.4 * Higland, Grampian, Tayside, Fife, Forth Valley, Lothian, Borders, Dumfries and Galloway