§ Mr. Wareingasked the Secretary of State for Social Services if he will estimate the numbers of additional elderly people likely to require care under the National Health Service in each of the next 10 years; what plans he has to meet their needs; and if he will make a statement.
§ Mr. John PattenThe numbers of people age 65 and over are projected to grow as follows over the next 10 years and these projected increases can be expected to influence the numbers likely to require health care:
People age 65 and over (percentage increase projected over previous year) Numbers 1985 1.9 1986 1.5 1987 1.0 1988 0.6 1989 0.4 1990 0.3 1991 0.4 1992 0.0 1993 -0.1 1994 -0.1 The overall population projections imply an average annual percentage increase in demand due to demographic changes on the hospital and community health services of some 0.7 per cent. per annum over the next 10 years. The Government's expenditure plans to 1986–87 imply increases in real resources to reflect demographic pressure on the hospital and community health services and also include provision to meet expected demand in the family practitioner services. However, we do not accept the implication that the only way in which the service can keep pace with increasing demand is by increasing spending by exactly the same proportion. We are also improving the services' efficiency so that services to patients can be improved and expanded over and above the planned increases in resources.