§ Mr. Harold Walkerasked the Secretary of State for Employment (1) why the answer of 28 February, Official Report, c. 58, relating to the cost of unemployed mineworkers was based on estimates and assumptions made in 1979 rather than the revised assessment given on 8 June 1982, Official Report, c. 41, in answer to a question from the right hon. Member for Doncaster;
(2) if, pursuant to the answer of 28 February, Official Report, c. 58, he will list the further assumptions requited to be made to provide a realistic estimate of the present cost to public funds of unemployed mineworkers;
(3) if, in view of the answer given to the right hon. Member for Doncaster, on 28 February, Official Report, c. 58, he is satisfied that the estimates supplied by his Department on 8 June 1982, Official Report, c. 41, of the average cost to public funds of each unemployed mineworker of £7,188 per worker during the first year of unemployment and £6,326 during the second year of unemployment were accurate;
(4) what new factors have emerged since the answer of 8 June 1982 to the right hon. Member for Doncaster, Official Report, c. 41, that resulted in him being unable to provide a meaningful figure of the present cost of public funds of unemployed mineworkers.
§ Mr. Peter MorrisonAttempts to estimate the average cost to public funds of each unemployed mineworker would need to include any redundancy and social security payments, any taxes and national insurance contributions which would have been paid in employment, the net value of the contribution of his employment to output and the effect of these payments and receipts on the economy generally.
The earlier estimates supplied by my Department were made by updating a 1979 estimate which focused on the first two elements in the belief at that time that the last two could reasonably be disregarded. Since then it has become clear that it is unrealistic to disregard them but that, as stated in my reply of 28 February to the right hon. Gentlemen, the range of possible assumptions is so great that no single realistic estimate can be produced.