§ Mr. Gordon Brownasked the Secretary of State for Scotland if he will list, by reference to the changing demographic composition of the population, the figures on which he bases his calculation that a 0.7 per cent. increase per annum in National Health Service expenditure in Scotland is necessary to keep pace with demographic changes.
§ Mr. John MacKayThe calculation that demand on hospitals and community health services will increase annually by 0.7 per cent. as a result of demographic change is derived from projections of population by appropriate age group and the most recent available figures for per capita expenditure by age group. Together these give projections of increased demand over the next five years as follows:
Year Per cent. 1984–85 0.49 1985–86 0.83 1986–87 0.91 1987–88 0.61 1988–89 0.70 The average increase in demand estimated over the five years to 1988–89 is 0.7 per cent. and this if the figure used for planning purposes. It does not follow that this increase in demand can be met only by increasing expenditure provision by the same proportion.
§ Mr. Gordon Brownasked the Secretary of State for Scotland if he will list, by reference to the changing capital and revenue expenditure on new equipment for the Health Service, the figures on which he bases his calculation that a 0.5 per cent. increase per annum in National Health Service expenditure in Scotland is necessary to keep pace with technological changes in requirements for medical equipment.
§ Mr. John MacKayThere is no precise basis for the estimate of extra demand on hospital service resources caused by the application of technological change to the treatment of patients but my Department assumes a figure of 0.5 per cent. annually. It does not follow that this increase in demand can be met only by increasing expenditure provision by the same proportion.
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§ Mr. Gordon Brownasked the Secretary of State for Scotland whether, in the light of known demographic trends and technological changes, he will estimate, for each year up to 1987–88, the specific additional amounts in money, and as a percentage of the National Health Service budget, required to keep pace with (a) demographic changes and (b) technological changes in requirements for medical equipment in Scotland.
§ Mr. John MacKayIt is estimated that the extra demand on resources for the hospitals and community health services caused by demographic and technological change can be measured at an average of a little over 1 per cent. annually to the end of this decade. I do not accept the implication that this extra demand can be met only by a matching increase in resource provision.