§ Mr. Stallardasked the Chancellor of the Exchequer if he will revise the figure of £180 million estimated savings in the social security budget in the part-year 1983–84, given in his autumn economic statement, assuming a rate of inflation between May 1982 and May 1983 of 4 per cent. and between November 1982 and November 1983 of 6 per cent.
§ Mr. BrittanThe social security decisions announced in the Budget, (other than the change in uprating method) including the real increase in child benefit, the extension of the long term rate of supplementary benefit to men over 60, the restoration of the 5 per cent. abatement of unemployment benefit, and the abolition of the invalidity trap will add about £120 million to the social security programme in 1983–84.
As I explained in my answer of 25 March—[Vol. 39, c. 503]—the effect on the programme of the decision to revert to the historic method for uprating social security benefits will not be known until after the rate of inflation between May 1982 and May 1983 is published in June. On the assumption given in the question, the reversion to the historic method would be likely to result in an uprating costing about £210 million less in 1983–84 than would an uprating of 6 per cent. based on the forecast method.